Stock Market Analysis 06 Feb 25 :

RBI Meeting, Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Hexaware IPO Analysis

Today Evening Sensex fell 213 points to close at 78058 while Nifty fell 93 points to close at 23603 where Yes Bank Nifty gained 39 points to close at 50382 Before talking about the price activity of the market today.

RBI Update :-

I want to talk to you about the important event that will take place in the market tomorrow, that is the RBI meeting, if you understand this clearly, you will not make any mistakes tomorrow, so I will explain it to you first. Tomorrow at around 10 o'clock in the morning, you will have a small data coming out related to the RBI meeting, you will have expectations, whether there will be a rate cut or not. Now we have a new governor for RBI, Sanjay Malhotra, and the new governor is a new occasion. Since this is the first RBI meeting after the budget, this time the RBI will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. So if you notice here, out of 28 experts  who have been following the RBI meeting since the economy, 24 are expecting a rate cut. Out of those 24, 23 are expecting a 25 basis point cut, while others are expecting a 50 basis point cut. And many people think that the RBI MPC meeting will end with just a rate cut. Let's assume that the rate cut is given. After that, reverse repo means now the rate cut means repo rate. That is reverse repo, CRR, SLR. Recently, they also talked about open market operations. All these updates have been coming into the market since the start of this meeting, in terms of next stock markets, in terms of bond deals. In terms of the forex market, like currency, in terms of inflation, in terms of GDP growth rate, in terms of stability of banks, in terms of financial institutions, there is a  high possibility of the RBI Governor making comments because it is the first meeting of the new Governor, he is likely to speak mostly broadly, so there will  be a big volatility in the market from 10 to 11, so if any new people want to trade in the market tomorrow, otherwise expect volatility from the market for that one hour after the market has risen and fallen, and then for some time  because we do not know what statements he will make until the end. We think the main statements are over. When the RBI meeting starts and a decision is made related to the rate cut, and if we see the next two or three comments, we think it is over. But at the end, they say that they will give one thing again in terms of inflation or further rate cuts. Anything else, a small statement that makes something in terms of expectations or related to banks  can move the market, so tomorrow is a volatile event because the new governor is speaking, so for the first time in so many months, the market is strongly expecting a rate cut this time, so I hope you have got clarity related to the RBI meeting. 

Bank of England updates :- 

The next update that comes after the markets close shows that the Bank of England is also cutting interest rates by 25 basis points. So the Fed has cut interest rates. The Bank of England and many central banks globally have moved towards cutting interest rates, so the market still strongly believes that there will definitely be an interest rate cut tomorrow. But the whole problem is that the market already thinks that there will be an interest rate cut. The question mark is whether everything has been factored in. If the cut really comes as a surprise, it will be difficult, so there will be no unexpected cut.  It is expected that there will be a surprise cut, but we will have to observe what kind of market move will happen after the cut tomorrow. 

FIDI Data Update :- 

Just now, the FIDI data has been updated.  We are seeing them on the sell side again, close to 3549 crores, so after a constant sell off, recently they have come on the buy side once, so if we are looking at 3000-4000 numbers again, we are seeing sell numbers again from them. The expectations that have been building in the market in recent times have come again with FIS selling. This constant selling also raises some disappointment in the market. But the only expectation is that tomorrow is the first RBI Governor's meeting or the new Governor's meeting. If they make any positive statements to surprise our market, there are still 82% shorts. FIS The budget is over. We have to see if their stand will change after the rate cut in the next RBI meeting. Whatever helped FIS to leave our markets in the past, some of them are cooling off. First thing, bond deals have been seen near 4.7 Something like that. In recent times, US bond deals are coming at the lowest values 4.4 The dollar index is also stable near 107-108. So, crude oil is also going down. Trump's officials also want a rate cut. But the Fed chairman will not call and ask directly, but they are expecting a rate cut. Trump's statement and these bond deals will also go down. The market will understand in advance that government spending will decrease and inflation will decrease. Therefore, rate cuts can be made even more. There is no need to worry about inflation. All these updates are coming. FIS is also helping to avoid selling in the market, but if they choose to go in the same direction as a single, it will be seen. Let's see what the impact of tomorrow's RBI meeting will be. 

Delhi Election Update :- 

Particularly on this FIS selling, remember that there are also Delhi elections. The exit polls coming out are saying that BJP is winning completely. Let's see. AAP won the last two phases. But if BJP wins this time, it means that it has defeated the BJP led by Modi. This is a sign that strong sentiments towards the Modi wave will continue. This is a sign that the market will go into the market. Because there  is some negativity in terms of the last elections, the market is not able to form a government completely on its own. Therefore, the outcome related to Delhi elections will also send a message to the market. This is Saturday is the day when the counting starts for the Delhi elections. 

Global markets Update :- 

when it comes to global markets, Google shares have fallen but Nvidia shares are rising. US markets are still strong, European markets are good and Asian markets are also good. Except for one or two, overall global markets should be seen as positive. Where is the global IT companies related? There is another interesting thing. Cognizant posted strong numbers. The numbers are stronger than expectations. But the guidance was reduced. Due to this, Cognizant stock did not increase much but the numbers are good. We can understand that our IT companies will also post good numbers this time in the coming times. See also today. CNX Pharma IT. These two are the ones that are overall green in all sectors. Why is IT Pharma in green? You know the reason for this. Look at the graph of the Indian Rupee from some time back and also the graph in the last one day. If you notice that the Indian Rupee is going up week after week, which sectors are good for it? Obviously, Pharma, IT, etc. are supported by them. And some data points related to the US are coming in, but like the AP reported private payrolls data, they are coming in a little higher than expectations. Friday is an important data, the non-farm payrolls report is released on Friday. 

Gold market Update :- 

Are you watching the gold price? It is touching a new record. So, the main reasons for the strong increase in the gold price are also from here. If you look back a few days, I have discussed in the news blog. The same reasons are there for the  constant increase in the gold price. And what you see here is the six- month chart. I want to show you the six-month chart. The market is at 22700. 22700 to 500 is an important support level that I have mentioned. The market has recovered from that zone. But if you draw the exact Fibonacci retracement from the high before this recent fall to the recent low, you will see this important resistance on our charts in the past and even near 50%, there is a 23800 level zone. So probably the market is facing some resistance there.

But as on big event, we have a make or break event with the RBI meeting tomorrow, so FIS are with good short positions.  If there is any strong positive surprise apart from the rate cut, if the shorts are covered and the market can go above 23800, then we can see it well in the short term. But if I am selling FIS again, this number is I didn't think I would see a number close to 3800 crores so easily. I thought FIS selling had decreased in my mind, but if FIS selling continues non-stop, that is the only concern. If in addition to this, RBI disappoints in giving rate cuts, we will further slow down the rate cuts by giving disappointing rate cuts. If any statements are made that inflation is our priority, it will again add value to the selling of FIS and put pressure on the market in the short term. Therefore, tomorrow, in the RBI event and coming times, the main events that we need to observe in the short term in terms of FIS selling market. 

Hexaware Technologies Ltd. :- 

IT company trying to enter the stock market today. Hexaware Technologies exited the stock market on November 9, 2020  at ₹475 per share. I am putting it in front of the mix screen. The  discovered price was around ₹475 through the reverse book building process. However, the exit price was around ₹475. In 2020, they discovered it and took it out of the stock market. Who took it like this? Who actually bought Hexaware? At that point, Carline is now bringing this company back to our market as an IPO with the price band of 674 to 708. This IPO will open on 12th February and close on 14th February. Through this, it is going to raise 8750 crores. The entire OFS will go to the promoters and retailers. 35% discount for employees in particular, 67%, and close to 90 crores for them. They are also providing quota. They are now valuing this company at around 43000 crores and bringing it to the market. When they were exiting, at what valuation did they exit? It was close to 3 billion dollars. So, if you put 38, it means 80, or we have 80, or it is close to 85. One dollar equals to rupees, which is around 24000 crores. They went out at a valuation of around 24000 crores. Now they are coming back to the market at a valuation of 43000 crores, which means that from that point till now they are bringing it to the market at around double the valuation. Mean while, the business has also improved and look at the big trap that is happening here. Where are the unlisted shares of Hexaware Technologies related to trading? 1000 in all 20s and how much do they want to bring it now? From ₹670 ₹708 Okay, the highest price band is ₹708, so in the unlisted market, this is the next IP, buy it, buy it, whatever the bus is running from there, it is coming into the market as an IPO at a discount of about 30%. I have no complaints in terms of valuations until I get this document and study it. But the complaint is clear in relation to those who are buying in the unlisted market.  It is coming into the market at a discount of 30%. So those who are in a hurry to invest in the unlisted market before investing in the IPO should   take such examples as examples. Many times, you give us money and promote our platform. We will sell the unlisted share in our platform. We will give you as much money as you want. Promote it. Okay, we will get money. That's right, you put money in and get trapped in some of them. We are not in a position to give an answer if there is a loss, that is why we only talk about those in our channel related to those which are regulated, those which are methods that everyone follows. Once again, I am telling you, don't fall prey to the bus that is in unlisted IPOs. I will show you examples of two out of 10 happening somewhere and give you 10 and you will lose in the remaining eight. It is a regular occurrence in the unlisted market space lately. Be careful. 

RBI Rate Cut Update  :- 

The market is somehow strongly expecting that the RBI will cut the rate. So try to listen to what Morgan Stanley is saying about which stocks will benefit due to this. For lenders, if they have a higher share of fixed loan rate assets and floating rate borrowings, this will be a benefit. Remember, I told you earlier that NBFCs will benefit more than banks because they are related to the money they are bringing in at interest? Whenever RBI cuts interest rates, they also benefit immediately, I mean they also get a pass on, their margins improve and profitability improves. So they are listing some housing finance companies and some NBFC companies.  According to Morgan Stanley, MNM Financials and SBI Cards will benefit. Where is LIC Housing? It will be negatively impacted. And in the entire space, their topic is RBI related. The topic of impact is TNB Housing Finance, Shriram Finance and Bajaj Finance. Where is  HSC? They are saying that Shoola, Shriram Finance, MNM Finance are their top picks. And even bank related, our marginal benefit will be there. That is the big impact. Their argument is that they will not bring it. So whatever, if the rate cut related to RBI is impacting in this NBFC space, it will be a factor. 

M&M(Mahindra and Mahindra) Ltd. :- 

Released their set of electric vehicles in two variants. You can see their related prices and their features on the screen and when will the deliveries start. The main reason for the slow down of Tata Motors in the electric vehicle space is that M&M is showing strong growth. While their vehicles and models are slowly gaining traction, not only electric vehicles but also passenger vehicles have brought some impact. In recent times, Mahindra and Mahindra have been on Indian roads. So if you look at it from any point, Tata Motors is related to If the price is falling, we can see this stability in the stock market, or rather, a graph picture that is increasing somewhat. If we go into the past, I will   also show you the list of features related to the newly released EVs in front of the screen. So, we can see from when the bookings of these are starting. So, if Mahindra updates them, if they are registering strong bookings and good sales, then what you see here is that all the bookings are being opened for us from February 14 for the XV 9 series and the BE 6 series. If anyone has good knowledge related to cars, do they  have any new models that they have released? Try to tell us how the demand is in the present market related to these models. Because these are somewhat unique, somewhat different.  In the present electric vehicle space and SUV space, if they have a higher market share, We think that  it will have an impact on other automakers in the coming times in terms of market share, so obviously, what one gains is another's loss. So if anyone has a good opinion related to cars, share your views on these new variants that are being released in the comment section. 

CRISIL Solar Update :- 

Is making big statements related to India's solar cell capacity. It is said that by almost 2027, the Indian solar cell capacity will reach 50 GW. For that to happen, solar cell manufacturing will have to increase almost five times from the present level. Government support should also be provided for it in the form of PL schemes. And since we are importing close to 80% of the solar cells that we need in India, there will be a strong expansion in terms of companies doing business related to these solar cells in India in the coming times. WAAREE Energies, Premier Energies Isolation Energy are making strong statements that their business will grow by nearly five times in the coming times. So, by the end of FY 2024, solar cell manufacturing, which is close to 10 GW, will increase by five times to 50 to 55 GW by FY 27. These statements are the same ones who have made WAAREE Energies, Premium Energies look strong in relation to this. In the mean time,  how many players will get involved in this space? Because what is strong here? What do we not see here? If we can do capex, if we can spend good money, there will be scope for many players to get involved. And there is also a possibility of integrating with players based in China and setting up manufacturing facilities here. So, in the coming times, their sales will be even higher than their sales. How are the margins? Related to this, their energies spoke during the IPO time that we will sell at a rupee more than others because our brand is like that, and those who bought from us also know that. There are statements that say how we will provide services later. If someone can build and sustain the brand, then maybe they will find some other way to maintain that brand image. Otherwise, this is a space where anyone can enter. We have to see how they will be able to maintain not only sales margins in the coming times. No doubt, solar will definitely grow, but the main point is all about margins, for that they are also going for backward integration. Many companies are close, so let's improve those margins. But if new players come and reduce their further pricing, no matter how much they integrate backward, their further Since pricing- related decisions will have to be made, those who have invested in this space should also keep an eye on how the competition will increase in this space in the coming times. 

USA Updates :- 

We have good news for Indians living in America because Trump, a few days ago, said that if anyone has children born in the US, if the parents of the child are not US citizens, whether they are illegal immigrants or those staying with temporary visas, it doesn't matter who they are, the new decision was passed by an executive order stating that if the parents are not US citizens, the child born will not be able to get US citizenship by birth. How can Trump, the District Judge of Mary, take away our 250-year-old history of citizenship by birth with a single order? We are seeing that we are imposing a stay on Trump's order, which was supposed to come into effect from February 19th, but a restriction has been imposed. Trump will go to further courts and legal options on this. The US administration will go to further courts and legal options.    But the fact that Trump keeps getting such judgments from the US courts is at least a small hope for Trump. If this is removed, then this is definitely good news for those in the US who want to live a longer life or are also planning the careers of their children. Due to this, Indians living there, who are pregnant, and those from other nations, also want their children to have citizenship in the US.  They are going to deliver prematurely. There are also recent articles saying that only the courts can deal with all this suffering here in the US. Let's see in the coming times. 

Zomato Ltd. Now Eternal Ltd. :- 

How will the final journey judgment be? Zomato will no longer exist because Zomato Limited is being renamed Eternal Limited. It remains to be seen whether there is any interesting logic behind this. Zomato is a very strongly built name. Swiggy, Zomato, Zomato, Zomato, Zomato, they are  building its brand in a related way. But why is it that they are changing the name from Zomato to Eternal Limited?  Let alone their food business related, will they also change their entire branding? Will they just change the company name? Like Google. We still have a search engine called Google, but its parent company is called Alphabet. So, in a parent company, they will name it Eternal Limited and under it the Zomato brand and some other brands. Will they put all of them? It remains to be seen if they remove Zomato and replace it with Eternal, even if it is related to the food delivery app, I don't think it is the right decision. Probably, this decision is only about the company name and I think that Zomato is a food delivery business related to whatever it is. So, do you like the name Zomato? Do you like the name Eternal? It has become a habit, so I think it is called Zomato. In fact, the clarity related to this comes from Deependra Goyal. Only the name of the company will be changed, that is, instead of the name Zomato in the stock market, the name Eternal will be used, and the app we use outside of Wear OS will be called Zomato. 

Railtel Corporation Of India Ltd. :- 

They are updating it. Let's talk about Next Rail Tail. They have won an order worth 49 crore 68 lakhs from the North Fone Railway for the installation of a blog surveillance system. They have received the order and are updating it so that it will be executed by May 5, 2026. 

HCL Technology Ltd. :- 

Charge Point is working  with HCL Technology on technology related to EV charging.  They are updating that they will receive services from them. What is Charge Point? This is a company that provides EV charging infrastructure related to America. As far as  I know, it is one of the largest EV charging infrastructure related to EVs. They have a presence in 14 countries. They have tied up with HCL Technologies and are going to work together on technology in terms of EV charging. The updates coming from HCL Technologies have updated EV exchanges. 

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd. :-

Recently, Rolls-Royce has tied up with Azad. Now, the same Rolls- Royce has tied up with Triveni Engineering and is going to work together on 4 MW marine gas turbine generators. So, this is related to the Navy. Rolls-Royce and Triveni Engineering are working together on the Indian Navy. The updates that they are going to do are being updated on the exchanges today. 

Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Ltd. :- 

Similarly, the exchanges are updating that Vishnu Prakash R Ponigala Limited has won an order worth 247 crore 55 lakhs from BHEL. 

SBI(State Bank Of India) Update :- 

SBI  released the numbers some time before the market ended today. After the numbers came, the stock rose a bit and then fell again. The numbers are neither disappointing nor surprising. Talking about the negatives, their net interest margin has decreased a bit this time. Last time it was 3.15%, now it is 3.01% net interest margin. That is what we are talking about now. Whereas, net interest income is also slightly below expectations. Whereas, on the positive side, profit is strong and asset quality is stable, non-performing assets are stable and in fact Gross non-performing assets are improving. Overall SBI numbers are staying close to market expectations, with the last time decreasing from 213 to 2.07.   As usual, we see slippages in SBI results. These slippages are decreasing this time. The slippage ratio is also improving significantly in quarter-on- quarter and year-on-year comparison. The thing that seems positive to me in the entire results is that. 

Bharti Airtel Ltd. :- 

Bhartiya Airtel numbers have come in strong and strong. Water numbers are showing strong growth related to them. Revenues are growing by 19%. When we look at the net income exceptional item, it is growing by 121%. What we see in them is the main thing. Isn't it a loss? If we compare it with the same time last year, it is close to 208, now it is close to 245. Even Indian Services Mobile Services related revenue increased by 21.4% and in terms of data consumption also, it has grown by 23.2%. Bharat Airtel has released strong and solid numbers with a total mobile base present of 41.4 million, which means that they have 41 crore 40 lakh subscribers. We understand from Bharat Airtel announcements that they are related to them. I am also putting the entire highlights in front of you on the screen. I think the numbers are good. 

Trent Ltd.(Tata Enterprise) :- 

We should  talk about the next trend numbers, they are weak. If you compare them with their peers, that is, if you compare them with other companies in the same space, suppose you compare them with v2, they have grown by 58%, the trent in the top line is 36%, they are bazaar style. 24% where as vmart is 15% but if you look here, sales are growing at 50-60% and are growing at less than 40% from the last two quarters. The present valuation given by the market for such a company is not justified. Therefore, if it is normally at a very low valuation or a very attractive valuation, then these numbers would have excited me. The stock is at a very expensive valuation and they are posting a growth of 40% below the market. The market has taken this as disappointing and even said that they are upgrading their stores and spending money to make them look better. Of course, upgrading stores means spending money. The market also thinks that margins will be impacted in the coming time. The short-term pain in terms of competition is still there. The margins will also be impacted by what they spend. The market is expecting that the numbers will be weak in the coming quarters as well. The stock reacted like this today. 

KPI Green Energy Ltd. :- 

numbers have come in and are beautiful. The company's revenue is increasing by close to 40%, their operating side is growing by 38% and profitability is growing by 68%. This time they have delivered strong numbers and after seeing their presentation, what kind of growth they are going to bring? The data they are presenting to investors is related to orders in hand. This data in their investor presentation is something every investor who has invested in this company should also see. 

Skipper Ltd. :- 

Before looking at the numbers related to skipper, note the updates they have made related to the order book. Almost their order book.  It is close to 6354 crores, of which domestic markets are contributing 89% and 11% are coming from exports. They have won orders of close to 3743 crores since the start of the year. Overall, they are getting strong orders. In addition to that, their numbers are also significantly strong. Revenues are growing by 42%. Operating side is 44% and profit is 102%. Good data with respect to numbers is visible here. 

EIE(Enviro Infra Engineers) Ltd. :- 

EIE ltd. numbers are also visible here on the screen. Revenue is 65% growth. Operating side is 100% growth. Profitability is 86% growth. Margins are important. See here. Last time, there were 17.7% margins. Now, they have brought the operating side margins to 21.4% profit after tax. If the margins are also close to 13 and are elevating to 14 1/2, we can understand that the business is growing strongly in terms of quality margins, top line is improving and bottom line is also growing strongly. Overall numbers, environment and infrastructure are also good. 

Exicom Tele-Systems Ltd. :-

It seems that they are talking a little too positively. Or are they talking too much about all the positive numbers? That is why these numbers are being made by Exicom in a clean bold manner. They are completely breaking expectations. In terms of revenues, there is still no profitability in terms of margins. Here we can see it clearly on the operating side. Where as this time they are posting losses. So the market expected that the last quarter impact would be better this time, but in the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparison, that last impact is hurting a little bit, but this time it is still hurting. I already know that the company has fallen by more than 50%. With the disappointment of, it ended in the lower circuit by more than 10% today. 

Sagility India Ltd. :- 

Agility India's revenues grew by 15% year-on-year and profits delivered a growth of 566%, which  completely surprised the market. The main reason for such growth is that revenues have increased so much and profits have increased so much. Their margins, which were 56, have improved slightly to 14.9. They are generating almost 400 crore cash in this Q3,  keeping their total free cash close to 800 crore. Expectations are already positive. They are very strong. They are beating even those numbers. This time, their numbers are showing.

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