Stock Market Analysis 07 Feb 25 : RBI Rate Cut Impact, ITC’s Big Acquisition, Infosys Layoffs & Metal Stocks Rally

Stock Market Analysis 07 Feb 25

Today Evening Sensex fell 198 points to close at 77860 while Nifty fell 43 points to close at 23560 where Yes Bank Nifty fell 223 points to close at 50159. Today in the entire market except metal stocks, we did not see a strong move upwards in any other stocks. There are reasons for that. Let's talk about it in the news topic.

RBI Meeting Update :-

But first, let's start with the RBI meeting today. How did each and every member related to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting take the decision to cut 25 basis points? Here is an important question for all of us. Sir, our budget is better than expectations. The market did not give a gain shock in terms of long-term and short-term capital gains and income tax. Even the government of India is trying to keep money in the hands of the middle class in a way that was not expected, but it did not make the markets rise in a big way. Short covering rally would have been possible. If you think that there will be a good short covering related to FIS, we have not seen it in the market at present. Still, 83% of FIS are in shorts and they are selling consistently in the market. Yesterday too, they sold close to 3500 crores in the market. Okay, after the budget, if they get signals that the rate cut cycle will start, then there will be some change in the market. Some expectations are there. It will be cleared with today's FIDI data.

However, with the way the market closed today, I have an expectation that FIS is on the buy side today, it is positive. But it has not been created. Okay, is this the only thing, is the rate the same, or are there any other positives? There are many reasons for this. The CPI target has been brought down from 4.8 to 4.2 in relation to FI 26. They say that inflation will come down. The GDP forecast has also come out in the economic survey. In that, the high range means that the highest one in that range is 6.8 It will be close to 6.7 They say that the GDP target is in terms of FI 26. All these are positive angles. If we talk about negative aspects, except for the rate cut, none of the other measures from the RBI side seemed that strong to us. And in terms of LCR related measures, no decision will be taken on it till March 31st 2026, that is, FI 27. The most important thing that the market expected was that they would change their stance from neutral to accommodative. Accommodative means that we will cut interest rates in the coming times. Neutral means that we will increase liquidity in the economy, whether we want to increase interest rates, increase them, reduce them, or reduce them. We will take a decision anyway. So now, the present RBI is maintaining this neutral stand and not coming into the accommodative stand, which may have caused some trouble in terms of the market. Maybe that is why it has not increased much even after this rate cut.

This is the only thing that I have to look for, why the market has not increased much today even after this rate cut. I mean, this is what the market expects from before, so the reaction has not come very strong and here the stands have also remained in neutral and not coming into the accommodative. We have to look for negative points. When looking at the points that I found related to the RBI, apart from this, the rest of the things are fine in terms of the RBI meeting. The budget is better than expectations. There is no change in the FIS and the RBI The rate cut is visible from the side, but the only problem is that they did not send a signal that we will give strong rate cuts in the coming times and the RBI event ended like that, putting the market on the negative side.

Today the monthly jobs data is related to the US. But do you know what we are hearing from the Trump side and the Trump government side? In the coming times, these 10- year bond yields will decrease because non-inflationary measures and the lack of much government spending there will also reduce 10-year bond deals. Therefore, statements are seen from the Treasury Secretary there that these comments are probably the same in recent times, but 10-year bond deals have come close to 4.4 The dollar index is also 10783. These have not increased much, but still FIS continues to sell. It happens the same way in Indian equity markets. US markets are stable. European markets are somewhat in the red. Asian markets are mixed. And I want to tell you one more important thing. What is happening globally?

Amazon posted the numbers. What is the extraordinary stock fall? But they announced in the conference call that they are going to increase investment related to AI by close to 100 billion dollars in 2025. AI related, however, is going to be a big theme in 2025. And even from Trump's side, Russia is going to end the Ukraine war and Trump's statements are also appearing. It remains to be seen that petroleum and diesel prices are rising because of crude oil prices. Trump is also indirectly commenting that oil prices should be reduced. Because of this, we also have this. Petrol and diesel prices are likely to come down and apart from this jobs data, according to the official communication coming to us, there are state statements that our Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit France between February 10 and 12 and meet the officials who are staying there. There is also confirmation in terms of the US-related visit. Updates are appearing that after the France visit, there will be a US visit and there will be discussions related to the US on Feb 12-13. There will be any key announcements at those points, particularly in such meetings, defense- related announcements. Let's see what kind of announcements will be released this time in France as well as the US-related.

FID Data Update :-

Just now, the FID data will be updated. Today, there are no big ones on both the buy and sell side. Only 470 crores of selling number is seen and The activity is also normal, not even at the big low levels, not even 78000 crores, not even 12500 crores, their normal activity is probably around 1000 crores. After the rate cut, they did not see any big sell numbers. There was a small hope that it would rise again, but in recent times, the hope has risen. They came to the buy side after this budget. So, everything will change now. At the time when we thought that big sell numbers would appear again, after the RBI meeting, they again reduced some sell numbers for us and put them near neutral. Actually, this is just a sell number. Let's hope that this should continue further from their side because if they keep selling, look at this. Has this month started, at least not even 10 days have passed. 9700 crores. Last month, 87 thousand crores. Before that, 17 thousand crores. Before that, 46 thousand crores. Before that, I think it was Rs 14,000 crore from the middle of September. That month ended in the green, so it doesn't mean that the entire market is in buy. They have been selling in one direction since the middle of that month. I think it's the first time in nearly five years. Now, the RBI has cut the rate. I think the last rate cut was in May 2020. After that rate cut cycle started, the rate cut cycle has started again. So, the FIS's sell number is decreasing today, which gives little hope in the market. But we need to see how it moves consistently over the next week. FIS's shots are still close to 83.5%, which means that the market is still going down. They don't seem to be buying in cash terms, but at least there is no positive note. Selling is also not big, but on futures and options. The side is clear, they want the market to fall. This is good for us because if there are FIS-related shots, there is a possibility of covering their shots in any case and taking the market up. So how will FIS' shots be covered? What is that trigger in the coming times? The positive trigger is decided by the mean time. Today there is jobs data. In the coming times, there is US-related, France-related, Modi's visit and Delhi election numbers will come to us. This weekend, clarity will come to Sunday point. All these events. If any single trigger can move FIS shots in the market, we can see it as a good thing in terms of the markets. Let's see FIS related in the coming times. There will be a direction in their cash market marks, selling related, buying related.

SEBI New Updates :-

Friends, before talking about the updates in the market, today the entire social media is filled with a new circular related to SEBI. That circular is about Asmita Patel, who is a stock market trainer, like courses, and they believe that she is a stock market trainer. And besides that, she also provides her stock market tips through social media platforms like Telegram, Zoom and Email. How much profit do you think she has made? In the last few years, she has earned 90 crores through some accounts and the remaining money through some other accounts. If you add up the total amount, it is close to 103 crores. She has earned it through this. In this, she has given stock tips and came here. The real thing is that everything is on Telegram here, if you see it on the screen, buy these, sell these, buy here, sell here, send emails, send emails, and so on. This is a subscription-based paid subscription. Even when he provides services based on SEBI, it is wrong in terms of SEBI regarding the stock market. It comes under advisory to say that buying this and selling this without registering under SEBI. Paid advisors who take money and give sell-buy recommendations or give tips are considered as illegal activities by SEBI. Therefore, the total amount of money earned through courses or tips is not required to be paid. SEBI has only asked them to pay the amount of money earned through the courses. However, the amount of money earned through the tips is close to 53 crores and 67 lakhs. In fact, those who sent money to her through courses will also be updated in the coming times. It seems that SEBI is likely to ask why all this happened. Around 42 people who were taking the course, 42 people, joined us by paying 8 lakhs to 9 lakhs for this course. When we asked if we could pay this much money, they said, " Sell your mutual funds, sell your investments, take loans, do anything. If you have taken the course, you will definitely be in profit. Don't back down from the course. In addition to taking money of 8 lakhs, SEBI wants to seize 53 crores from him, thinking that he was involved in illegal activities by giving buy and sell recommendations to them. And the remaining amount is also taking away his activity in terms of stock market trading. So, it is close to 53 crores to 60 lakhs, the change is close to 53 crores to 67 lakhs. So, if you look at it roughly, it is 54 crores left, which is also related to what he earned through stock market courses. This 128-page circular of SEBI seems to be taking action in the coming times.

Surya Roshni Ltd. :-

They are investing 25 crores in the house wiring cable plan. HWC says that they are going to establish house wiring cables in Gwalior city in Madhya Pradesh. They say that the commissioning will be done in Phase One or in the first half of FY 26 or in the first half of FY 27. That is, they are investing money in the phase one and phase two of the plan. The money will be generated in the first half of FY 26, Phase One in the first half of FY 27, and Phase Two in the first half of FY 27.

Bharati Airtel Ltd. :-

an interesting announcement is coming from Bharti Airtel and Bharti Hexham. They are going to transfer their telecom tower business to Indus Towers. They are going to transfer 12700 telecom towers under Bharti Airtel to Indus Towers. Selling for 2174 crore 60 lakhs, this is from the Bharti Airtel side, where is Bharti Hexam selling 3400 telecom towers to Indus Towers for 1134 crores, making a total of 3308 crores 70 lakhs for Bharti Airtel and Bharti Hexam, both Airtel and Bharti Hexam are updating that they are selling Indus Towers to them. So, is it a non-core business for them? Airtel is a telecom operator. Bharti Hexam is a telecom operator. Tower business is not a core business for them. In fact, Airtel holds a majority of shares in Indus Tower. So, if we adjust this tower business to the companies under them.

ITC Ltd. :-

They will have frozen foods, right? Like, now wherever you go, look at other countries. Frozen foods are what you see. If they acquire a frozen foods portfolio called Prasuma to strengthen their position in that segment, it will be seen that this is a ready-to-cook segment. Prasuma sells frozen momos, Korean fried chicken, bass, etc. They are growing with a revenue of close to 200 crores annually. In this company with sales of close to 200 crores, ITC is going ahead to acquire an initial 43.8% stake by March 2025 and acquire the remaining stake in the next three years. ITC related updates are seen. This is an interesting update in terms of ITC. They have acquired a small company, but ITC is related to this frozen foods. If it is in focus, we will understand indirectly through this acquisition.

Home Loan Update :-

whoever has a home loan, another important thing I should mention here is that your home loan interest rates will decrease. For example, suppose you have already taken a home loan, it has an interest rate, right? Now RBI has cut the repo rate, so in the coming times they will also have to reduce the home loan rate. So that your new EMI will be less than the existing EMI. If you are paying the same EMI, your tenure, this home loan tenure will be completed quickly. So if RBI keeps cutting interest rates, you will also benefit related to your home loan. Due to the reduction in interest rates, those who have taken a home loan should note that

Allied Digital Services Ltd. :-

their network upgrade project worth 14 crores. Alight Digital is updating that they have received the order from MSC TCL, that is, from Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Company Limited, as part of this network upgrade.

MTAR Technologies Ltd. :-

has received an order worth Rs 200 crores from Clean Energy and Aerospace. Who do you think the majority of the order came from? Their old client and majority of business is Bloom Energy. They have received an order of Rs 157 crore 40 lakhs. Fuel cells related, where is the order of Rs 2.7 crore, Fluence Energy related, Mean Energy Storage related, Rs 22 crore, Civil Nuclear Power related, Rs 17 crore 90 lakhs, Space and Aerospace related, ISRO and MNCI related, and this from multinational companies. The exchanges have been updated that the orders have been received and it will be completed by 26th. MTR

Petronet LNG Ltd. :-

have signed a 15-year agreement with Deepak Finolex. What is Deepak Finolex? Does Deepak Knight have anything to do with this because Deepak Nitrite is its parent company. So Deepak Finolex is a subsidiary of Deepak Knight. As part of this deal, Petronate LNG is going to sell the profilin and hydrogen related to Petronate LNG to Deepak Finolex. Petronate LNG has made updates for the next 15 years.

HG Infra Engineer Ltd. :-

has got the Delhi Railway Station Redevelopment Contract worth Rs 2195 crore 68 lakhs. This is not going to them completely, it is a joint venture. In that joint venture, HDG Infra has They have a share of close to 49%, while DEC Infra has a share of 51%. They are updating that they will complete this entire project in the next 45 months.

Yash HighVoltage Ltd. :-

They have won an order worth Rs 11 crore 46 lakhs from WB SCL, i.e. West Bengal State Electricity Transmission Company Limited, Kolkata. They have received orders related to power transformers, design, manufacturing, texting, supply and supervision of 220 kV, 132 kV, and 52 kV power transformers. They have updated that they will execute these orders by February 4, 2026.

Solar Industries Update:-

has received a defense order worth Rs 6084 crores from the Ministry of Defense. As far as I know, Solar Group is in the history of this company. I have been observing their orders for a long time. This is the largest order in their entire defense segment. It is an order that will be executed in 8 to 15 years. But the majority say that 86% will be completed in the next 10 years. And if we compare it with their market capital, this order alone is worth close to 8%, so overall it should be considered a big order for them.

Infosys Ltd.:-

particularly IT employees who have joined in recent times, will face a new shock from Infosys. Infosys is removing 700 freshers from their Mysore campus from the jobs they have recently given them. The union of IT employees is also concerned about this. They are making statements against Infosys, they have secretly reached an agreement with them and are now being removed from their jobs in a haphazard manner, but we are removing them from their jobs because they failed in their internal test, which is part of their contract. Infosys is removing close to 700 people who got jobs. Even related to this, they are also complaining to the Labor Ministry. If we get this update on various financial platforms, it will be shared. Layoffs related to IT stocks are a major element that is being seen. So, if layoffs are happening more, expectations will also be built in the market that there will be more business in the coming times. So, I am asking for data points related to the IT sector. If there are IT employees in the industry you are in recently, Are they laying off more of their jobs? Because 700 people were laid off from a campus at once, and that too using bouncers and security guards. So if any such layoffs or mass layoffs have happened in the IT companies you are working with in recent times, please share it if possible. Because in the coming times, when business is good and there is growth, more employees should be hired. So, there is nothing happening silently in the IT industry. If possible, try to give feedback. Where is it related to this? Infosys responded and said that they terminated only 300 trainees. That too, they used bouncers in financial platforms. They terminated them forcefully. My father also clarified that we did not use anything like that in the contract. As part of this, they were removed from their jobs peacefully because they failed their internal test. If there is a clarification from Infosys to CNBC.

Metal Stocks Update :-

then we see some main reasons for the rise in metal stocks today. If you notice here, out of all the indices, only the metal index has increased by 2.66% today. There are some reasons for this. Let's talk about it one by one. First, the rate cut given by the RBI Governor is good for metal stocks in terms of Indian metal stocks. And the rupee is weakening further. All the other companies are not trying to import into the Indian market, so domestic companies are more competitive. And according to the commentary given by ArcelorMittal Global Steel Joint, the statements that 2025 will be better than 2024 and will grow strongly are also boosting metal stocks today. If China is related to Chinese the news that the government and officials are taking steps to increase real estate by taking resolutions and taking steps should also be seen as the main reason for the rally in these metal stocks. And finally, there are speculations from the metal industry that our Indian government and DGTR will impose anti-dumping duty on cheap steel imports coming into India from other countries. Therefore, all these factors related to the metal space are creating this bus.

ITC Ltd. :-

The surprising thing in the overall ITC numbers is their cigarettes and tobacco business. Because that is what contributes close to 80% of their operating profit. If you think there will be a volume growth of three to 4%, then 5 to 6% volume growth will be seen there. Whereas the whole problem has come from. Their FMCG business has grown by 4%, while the market is expecting a growth of around 7%. Whereas, their Agri business has grown by 10% and the margins are also around 12.3% in terms of Agri business. The overall numbers are good there. The paper business is also good. Even ITC Hotels has good numbers. The total is good, but their FMCG business is below expectations. Apart from that, the rest of the numbers are also good in terms of ITC. And they have made some acquisitions. We discussed those acquisitions in the news topic. So overall, if we look at their revenue, their revenue has increased by 8.6%, but the margins have come down a bit. Because FMCG is down, so profitability is also flat. Exceptional gain. We have now discussed all these numbers including close to 528 crores. The demerged entity has a hotel business, so it is growing close to 15% year-on-year and the margins in terms of revenue are also expanding by almost 450 basis points. We have seen good growth there. Along with these numbers, ITC has announced a dividend of 62 per share.

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. :-

if we talk about their related negatives, why is their profitability looking weak this time? Their other income has decreased this time and finance costs are increasing. And their user business has a US related business, its revenue has also dropped and the API business is also looking weak in their numbers this time. These are negatives. If we talk about positives, these are HIV-related ARV medicines. They have grown strongly this time and Europe and the rest of the world apart from the US are showing good numbers this time and debt is also reducing from 84 million dollars to 133 million dollars. Overall numbers are mixed, that is, neither extraordinary nor bad, some positives, some negatives are there.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. :-

numbers should be discussed. If you notice on the screen, the stock has not increased much today due to this, but the numbers are good. Their numbers are good and they are also increasing their market share. I think 87% market share in the 100 cc segment and 206% market share in the 125 cc segment. The numbers are good, better than expected, increasing the market share is good for me.

PG Electroplast Ltd. :-

numbers are strong improvement margins in revenues. They are growing strongly, so profitability has also been posted beating expectations. The numbers are good.

Action Construction Ltd. :-

should talk about their numbers. They are reporting solid numbers. They are reporting 17% year-on-year growth and 14% quarter-on-quarter growth. Profit is also growing at 18% quarter-on-quarter and close to 27% year-on-year. It is good to see them bringing double-digit growth in this space, particularly in such an environment.

Goldiam International ltd :-

we should talk about their numbers. If you look at the year-on- year comparison, sales are up 41%, gross profit is up 53%, margins are up strongly by 325 basis points, profit has grown close to 54%. The numbers are solid, so why is the stock price? To understand this, look at the stock's reaction in recent times. In recent times, they launched a website in the retail space and sold diamonds to the lab ground diamonds. After these results, those expansive valuations that were stretched seem to be cooling off a bit.

Growel {Grauer & Weil(India) Ltd.} :-

Wheel have also posted numbers. The quarter-on-quarter comparison is good. The numbers are flat year-on-year. The numbers are flat to slightly negative. These are the numbers to look at year-on-year. so the numbers are not that extraordinary, but they are not that disappointing either.

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd. :-

Their revenues are growing by 30% year-on-year and profits are 28.8% year-on-year and 29% annually. It has grown. Revenues are growing by 14% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Profits are growing by close to 38% because of the wrong March expansion. So overall numbers are better than expectations.

Sai Life Sciences Ltd. :-

Not just the numbers. They are also making another interesting update. Let's discuss that too. Revenues are improving strongly in quarter-on- quarter and year-on-year comparison. Operating profit is growing. Margins are increasing. Last time, margins were 25%, now they are 27.2% margins. That's why they have also posted good profits in year-on-year and quarter-on- quarter comparison.

BSE Updates :-

I am putting their highlights on the screen for you in terms of numbers. Revenues are growing by 94%, operating side is showing significant growth. They are bringing in nearly 157% growth on the operating side and profits have grown close to 103%. Margins are improving by 600 basis points. Transactions through BSC are also improving. They are reporting strong growth related to derivative contracts. If they are updating, I am also putting the total data related to their results in front of your screen. The overall numbers are not that extraordinary for me, nor are they the worst. They are in an expensive valuation. So that is the only concerning factor. It is the fee that the numbers will be good. Let's see what kind of growth this particular company is related to in the coming times. The market is expecting such valuations.

OLA Electric Ltd. :-

revenue will be down in a year-on-year comparison. There is an operating loss of almost 19.4%, while the net profit is close to 460 crores. However, when it comes to the loss, they are reporting a loss of close to 564 crores. Last year, the same time, it was 376 crores. Further, this time, the loss is visible from their side.

M&M (Mahindra & Mahindra) Ltd. :-

Their numbers, particularly, are revenues growing by 17% year-on-year and 8.6% quarter-on-quarter. The operating side is growing significantly there too, close to 30% year-on-year, while the profit is growing by 21.8% year-on-year and 22% annually. Both year-on-year and quarter- on-quarter comparisons. Mahendra and Mahendra have posted good numbers.