Stock Market Analysis 05 Feb 25 : Sensex Falls 312 Points, Nifty Down 43 Points, Strong Bounce in Small & Mid-Cap Stocks
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| Stock Market Analysis 05 Feb 25 |
Alphabet, I
mean Google's parent company, announced a strong capex of almost $70 billion.
So today, the markets are not very strong. Even the Asian markets are also a
bit weak in terms of subject matter. The European markets are also the same. But
coming to India, our main line markets, the Nifty Sensex, if we look at these
aside, we saw strength in the rest of the market today. Probably your portfolio
today. The portfolio of those who are small caps should be in the green today.
It has fallen almost 20% from the recent highs, so from the lows, it has
recovered almost 9%. We should remember that the small cap index is still down
by 13%. It is near an interesting zone, but the small cap index is visible. This
is a bit I'll zoom out. I told you a while ago that we were seeing some zones that were interesting for small caps, and
we drew some supports. That support was recently broken. The small cap index
comes exactly near that support. It doesn't act as resistance and stabilizes
above it. It's about 17,500. But if
we see the small cap 100 index, then technically the entire small cap space is
overcoming the weakness in recent times. Let's see how the small cap index is
overcoming the important zones. These are the three major levels that I'm
looking at in terms of the small cap index. If there is a fall in the coming
times, when the small cap index comes near these zones, where are the
opportunities related to them? In which spaces are there good numbers in recent
times? Let me tell you my opinion on the
levels that I have set to see that the valuations have become attractive. Look,
in terms of small caps, when someone makes a lot of money in small caps, it is
not those who put money in that valuation, but in terms of opic, calm, very
good correction, good panic, when we feel that they have come to reasonable
valuations, very juicy valuations, and then when we put a large amount of
money, we can make good money in the recovery, but otherwise what happens? Note
that when it falls, some stocks fall, and then when it rises, they do not want
to rise, and others may continue to rise.
Therefore, if
we put money in those stocks and when they fall, they will rise again. We
should not think that when they fall, the medicine will fall and when they
rise, the whole herd will rise again. Therefore, we should always look at
valuations in terms of small caps. In terms of EMS companies, in terms of Dexon, in terms of Amber, this pack, all such companies are also good in terms of
business, but Valuations are expensive. I said that we will talk about it again
in the coming times when the valuation becomes attractive. But I did not say
that I am going ahead because the business is good. Why am I reminding you of
this? I mean, not now, but anytime. In terms of small caps, you will be safe if
you wait two to three years and invest in good opportunities. When it comes to
good attractive valuations, you will be safe if you invest in expensive
valuations. But you should remember that even if you study a lot and invest in
expensive valuations, you will get trapped. Therefore, whenever in the market,
you should look for opportunities in large caps, quality stocks, and maintain a
watch list related to these small caps. If good companies are growing, let them
grow. But if you maintain a watch list, such opportunities will fall in the
market with a strong correction or a global sell-off for some reason. Well, at
that time, When you feel that the valuations have come in reasonably, investing
more in them at that time, then shifting from large caps to small caps, and
then assuming that they have become expensive, then shifting money from small
caps to large caps again to keep the portfolio somewhat strong, even in the
week market conditions, to prevent it from going down by 30-40%. This is the
rebalancing method followed by many large players. And even if you feel this, I
told you in the beginning that all capital market stocks are like broking
companies, but let it be CDSL, let it be AMC asset management companies, even
BSC has also increased so much today. What could be the main reason?
NSC Update :-
NSC posted their numbers like this. If you look at the numbers, there was a 21%
increase in revenue in year-on-year comparison. Do you know what is interesting
here? Quarter on Revenue fell in the quarter comparison but net profit
increased by 22% because margins are expanding. If you think that the recent
rules will destroy their numbers completely, then the numbers have not been
destroyed and you can also see how the overall market positioning of NSC is. NSC
is the largest derivative exchange in the present world and the number one
equity trading platform for India. So with these strong numbers, we can
understand if we see a good move in capital market stocks.
FIS Data Update :-
FIS has just updated its data. They are still selling close to 1682 crores. But this should be seen as big, that is, not positive. The first thing is that we see their sell side again, it is not even that deep negative because 3000-4000 crores. We have seen it repeated, 1600 crores is a number that can be balanced and yesterday also there was good short covering in the market. From 184000 contracts to present 153000 contracts, almost 90% of those who had net shots yesterday, now 83% of net shots, 7% of shots have been covered in yesterday's market. But again FIS is showing the sell side again. I said in yesterday's blog that if they come to the buy side in one day, we will not be happy, but if this continues for a few days, this will maintain stability. But even after seeing this sell number, they have backed down again. They are getting ready to sell big again. For me, the present is still not confirmed. Those who have sold constantly, even here I see the buy number at 14000 crores. Usually, it used to be around 10000-11000, so it is around 14000 crores, so still with the small hope, will their numbers come back again in the coming days and go from zero to positive again, or will these numbers appear again from selling 1600 crores to 2000 crores, 3000 crores, 4000 crores? If it is an attempt to see those numbers again, then it should be understood that they are back into selling. They have done their job and are leaving the market. Therefore, we should carefully observe how the selling intensity of FIS will be for the next one week. The most important is the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 7th, in which the market expects a decision on interest rates to be taken. There is a 25 basis points cut there, but if such a decision is not made, it is also possible to disappoint the market. Let's see what will happen on February 7th. If a rate cut decision is made, it is better for banks, and it is even better for NBFC companies than banks. In my opinion,
I said in
yesterday's blog that we should focus on three important things in the coming
days. Modi's India-related visit to the US, then France- related visit, and
then India-UK Free Trade Agreement- related discussions will be held in the
coming times. So, February 24th, all these are important events that we will
see in this month because important announcements, defense- related free trade
agreement announcements, many sectors, blog mentions, will impact many things.
So, along with the RBI event, we will also see these in this February month. There
will also be Delhi elections. I think the exit polls will be updated in the
evening today. Let's see who the exit polls are leaning towards. If you are
closely tracking the Delhi elections, who has more power in terms of Delhi
elections? There is scope to win this
time. If possible, tell us your opinion in the comment section.
Enforcement Directorate Raipur Update :-
here you can see some companies, right? You can also see the share next to those companies. All this is related to a Dubai- based businessman, Harishankar Tibrewala. There is this Mahadev online betting app. There are allegations related to it and some illegal betting operations. The ED has seized assets worth Rs 590 crores related to him. Now all these stocks have gone under the Enforcement Directorate and indirectly under the government. Almost some of the companies you see here, but in total, 14 companies are now under the government. so, if you look at the data, it will be seen that his share in the government is now under the government. So, in the coming times, if he If he thinks that all these stocks went to him and are still with the government, what steps will the government take? Will the government keep these related holdings with the government or try to sell them? We will understand this in the coming times. But as of now, the stakes or shares related to these companies have been seized by the ED under the government.
Azad Engineering Ltd. :-
They have signed a deal with Rolls-Royce. Isn't that a company that manufactures cars? They also do business related to aircraft engines. So, they have tied up with them and Azad Engineering is going to supply super critical mission parts to Rolls-Royce from Hyderabad to a company based in the UK. this will further strengthen their aerospace manufacturing and innovation. If Azad is updated, They are doing.
RVNL(Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd.) :-
. They have received an order worth Rs 404 crore and 40 lakhs from East Coast Railway. As part of this, 27 major bridges and some other works will be completed in the next 30 months. They are telling the exchanges that in the Nifty 50 related large-cap stocks, which are trading attractively? You must have many questions related to this. In the related article, Economic Times released their article and said that even in the market, most of the Nifty 50 stocks are trading expensively, while some are trading at a discount. They are sharing the data as a list of those stocks. Here on the screen, you can see their current PE and compare it with their 10-year average PE. Where are some of them? Stocks Hindustan Lever Eicher Motors Cipla Ongc Tata Steel Asian Paints Maruti Suzuki AP Apollo Hospitals Dr. Reddy's Labs Coal India are trading somewhat attractively compared to their 10-year average PE. We can understand from this list that even if we compare them with their historical PE, they are also mentioning how much discount they are at. Friends, our investment decisions are not based only on price to earnings, how is the growth in the coming times? Are there any negative updates related to that growth? This is also taken into consideration, but only from the valuation point of view. We can see the metrics shown above and even if we compare them with their price to book, you can also see through this image which ones are being traded where. The article that the Economic Times is sharing today
Jyoti Structures Ltd. :-
stock, if you have it, pay attention to it carefully. This stock is close to 27. The promoters have announced a rights issue related to it. Remember this very well. Even if you have this stock, if you do not participate in it, you will be losing money. They are announcing an offer night to buy six shares of this company at the rate of 16. Since this is a small stock, you may have a lot of stocks. Therefore, for every 26 stocks, you can buy nine stocks at the rate of ₹16. You will get the rights entitlement. The record date is February 10th. Those who have these shares in their demat account as of February 10th will have the opportunity to participate in the rights entitlement. The rights would open. Underline this. The rights would open on February 17 and close on March 3rd. But the important date is that if you have these right I don't know the process of participating in the IPO. I don't want to participate. But I don't want to lose. I mean, whoever has these shares, you will get your Aari shares in a few days and they will be credited. You will have the opportunity to sell those Aari shares in the open market by February 23-24. If you sell them and have extra money, put it in your bank account or buy some other shares with that money. But I will keep those Aari shares in my demat and hold them for life. Remember that on February 25th, you will not see those Aari shares. Your original Jyoti structure shares will remain the same. Those 27 company shares will remain the same. But because of that, the Aari shares that came as part of these rights will be called Aari shares. They will not be visible. So, participate in either rights. That date will open on February 17 and close on March 3. If you don't want to participate, you will have to wait for the next few days. Sell the shares of the upcoming Aari by February 24th. This is not the same in our market, it is the same for any other company. The same process applies to you. If your company is giving rights in the rights or if Aari shares come, it is not about keeping real shares. It is called the renunciation date. It is called the market renunciation deadline. Before that deadline, they can be sold in the market and hold that money and if not in our bank, we can invest in other shares. Otherwise, what will happen is that it will disappear like that and disappear into thin air. You will lose. It's like an AV ticket. Go to the movie. Or give that movie to someone before the movie. Give it to someone for money. That's it. But after the movie is over, go and hold that ticket again and say, "I have this movie ticket. If I want to watch the movie, it is just a paper, a useless paper, or something like that." Why are these rights being issued like this? Money from the shareholder for money. They think that they will take money from the shareholders by giving them shares at a low price and if some shareholders are most of the retailers, they will not participate, if they do not do so, the promoters will also participate at a low price. Similarly, the motors will also try to increase their share at a low price and always remember that it is not only if we have shares in the rights that the shares are traded, but there are also many people who buy the shares from those who have the shares and go into the rights and participate. It is not for this company that if those who want to acquire a large amount of shares do so, there will be some advantage and benefit if they do so than doing it in the open market. Those who think that there will be some advantage and benefit will also buy the shares and participate in the rights. Whoever has how many shares of the shares of the company, they will be eligible to apply for all the shares. There are some people who do not participate, how are their shares of the company? Since they expire, even those with fewer shares sometimes apply more. By chance, if the participation is less, there will also be an allotment there. Here, Jyoti Structures is trying to raise 500 crores by doing this. Now, they are saying that they will give those 16 rupee shares. These are newly issued shares. Due to this, the company's equity will also be diluted by 30%. Remember, it is not that something has increased today, but that something will continue to increase in the coming times. The numbers have come in recently, but the rights were very volatile then. Correctly, the rights were still expired and by then, if there was a record date, we would not be able to buy after that. From that point, the real price will kick in, that is, the stock price will come into reality. So unless you have clarity in the business, just look at the share price. Otherwise, if it has increased today, it means that it will increase in the coming times as well. I 'm leaving, don't go ahead with euphoria. First, study properly in this or that. Then take a decision.
IEX(Indian Energy Exchange) Ltd. :-
They are delivering consistently good
performance, but the only thing is that the market coupling has fallen very
well due to fears that something is going to happen in the market. Even after
the stock, they are constantly posting good numbers. Even though they are
posting good data, the fears in the market are stopping an opportunity for the
stock price to grow significantly. If you look at their numbers here, total
electricity traded has increased by 16% in year-on-year comparison. Renewable
energy certificates are increasing by 150% year-on-year. Green market volumes
are increasing by 28%, and the dam price is increasing by 28%. The clearing
price alone has declined by 24% year-on-year.
When volumes increase, we often see volatility fluctuations in these dam
prices. The segment-wide performance is
also strong in the dam and RTM markets. However, the TOM market has seen a 9%
decline year-on-year. Overall, it is strong. This time too, their electricity
volumes are reported by IEX related
to the month of January.
ALKEM Laboratories Ltd. :-
Skin care related, particularly if you have any pigmentation issues, like moles or otherwise. Many people who have any hyperpigmentation issues get alerted immediately and go to the doctors for creams. Related to this, ALKEM Laboratories is releasing a serum called Cozy Glow, which is India's first liposomal serum with Dio Lipo technology. There are already many products in the market related to hyperpigmentation that are not good for the skin. In the process of reducing hyperpigmentation, they irritate the skin. This also irritates. They say that they will irritate to a minimum and reduce hyperpigmentation. This is their opinion that ALKEM presence in the dermatology and skin care segment will increase. Let's see. All dermatologists have also referred this product a lot. I think their sales are likely to increase. But there are many people who usually accept hyperpigmentation. If they like it, is this a big deal? Are there people who leave it unexpectedly? They don't use such things, but as the acceptance of medicines in such segments increases, their business will also grow incrementally.
Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd. :-
They said that they will enter the business related to shipbuilding and signaling systems, but they made announcements about its management. Saket Kandoy is going to lead shipbuilding and maritime systems and Pratish Chaudhary is going to lead safety and signaling systems SSS. Anil Kumar Agarwal, who is in the same company, has been promoted as deputy MD and appointed to supervise freight and passenger rail systems. Titagarh Rail Systems has made updates.
Welspun Enterprises Ltd.:-
They have got a contract worth close to 291 crores from BMC. BMC means that they have got an order related to water pumping station from the Municipal Corporation of Mumbai and its operations and maintenance for the next seven years is also another 37. The value of the crores is also theirs, they will execute it completely in the next 20 months and their total order book is currently close to 2791 crore 76 lakhs. Welspun Michigan is a material subsidiary of Welspun Enterprises. They are updating it.
InfoEdge Ltd. :-
Info Edge is making an important announcement. Stock split is 1:5 So if you have Info Edge shares in your demat account, each share will be converted into five shares and the stock price will also be divided by five and will decrease. So, the stock price will decrease. Since the companies believe that more retailers will be interested in entering this, they are doing stock splits.
OPEN AI updates:-
Open AI CEO Sam Alt said, is he our IT Minister Ashwini? We met Vaishnav and discussed IT-related,
AI-related collaborations and important statements from him. He said that he is
taking back some of the words he had spoken in the past about AI development.
He said that India is the second largest market in terms of open AI. He said
that India is doing everything it can to develop AI-related. He said that
whatever India has developed so far, it has been amazing. He said that AI has
not come that far to cure cancer, but they are thinking of bringing it. Our IT
Minister also said that we should use AI in various fields and reduce costs so
that we can move forward strongly. Our IT Minister is also making statements.
But another thing that is visible here is that our Finance Ministry, which is related
to India, tells us to avoid using any tools. Our Indian Finance Ministry See
here that the officials are saying that Chat GPT DeepSeek and the same models
should not be used officially for work purposes. Here, The Hindu Mint The
Indian Express writers are seeing updates on multiple platforms. The Finance
Ministry is passing these orders, let it be any technology. Beat Social Media.
AI. India is one of the largest markets because of the population. The young
population is more. Therefore, Amazon is also reporting that we are losing
thousands of crores in India. They say that India is one of the top priorities
in our business list. Google, Facebook, multiple social media platforms and any
other great company that is made in the world will definitely keep India at the
forefront of the market place because of the usage. Therefore, the growth
opportunities that are related to the Indian demographic are like that for
companies located in other countries. When our India is becoming such an
important market place, the demographic and future conditions that are present
will definitely help our Indian companies grow, so our Indian stock market will
also evolve if we compare it with the global markets that are strong over the
period.
Tata Motors Ltd. :-
Their Land Rover sales in the US have increased by 70% in
year-on-year comparison and have decreased by 10% in month-on-month. This is a
face-off with Land Rover where Jaguar is concerned. They are moving towards
complete electrification there, so we can see that sales there are down by 14%
year-on-year.
Pharma Companies Update :-
an interesting development will be seen. If
you notice here, Trump is making a threat to China. This is a process that is
going forward. Drugs and molecules coming from them are being tested on pharma
companies. If it increases its tariffs
in the US, the prices and shortages of those drugs will increase and Indian companies
will benefit from it. So in recent
times, when our rupee is weak and the dollar is strong, we can see two sectors
in a good way: one is IT and the other is Pharma. But for IT, if inflation
increases in the coming times, if we cut interest rates, there is a possibility
that IT will be impacted, but not for Pharma. Even if the dollar is strong, it
will have an advantage. Whether they cut rates there or not, it will not
directly impact Pharma. Therefore, our rupee is weak, the dollar is strong, and
this tariff game that is happening now is not a problem. The results that are
present in the coming times and the US is also showing better margins. Looking
at all this, Pharma stocks are now related.
No, I have been saying for a few months that companies related to pharma
stocks, hospital stocks and hotel stocks have
more potential to go up than down in the short term. But if I have to
pick one out of them, pharma has its advantages increasing over time.
IGL(Indraprastha Gas Ltd.) :-
Today, the company has grown a lot. The only rumor is that the current Delhi elections are going on. It mainly operates in Delhi. It has never increased its CNG prices in Delhi because of elections. In the same time period, MGL and Gujarat Gas increased their prices by 2 to 4%. So, after the Delhi elections, IGL also increased their CNG prices by 4% and increased their margins. There are rumors in the market that it will improve. Most likely, that is what is the possibility of it happening. That is why the stock has gained so much today. Remember, after the elections, how much time gap will they announce these price hikes? If the stock does not increase after the price hike announcement, don't think that it is a good update. The market thinks that it will already increase. Therefore, we will not have a big reaction when the update comes. The main reason for the increase today.
Angel One Ltd.:-
if we compare it with December, January is a month-related business date. They are posting that in month-on-month comparison and even year-on-year comparison, we can see good growth in January month-related. Because the number of trading days is more, there are 21 days in December, there are 23 days in January, and even in year-on-year comparison, last year there were 22 days in January. But this time there are 23 trading days in January 2025. Trading days but putting it aside, client addition is strong in year-on-year comparison and month-on-month comparison, let it be the average client funding book, let it be the number of orders, let it be the notional turnover, let it be the month- on-month comparison, both equity plus FNO and FNO related are showing good growth, and they are publishing that business debt is better than expected. The main reason for this increase today is why.
VRL Logistics Ltd. :-
First, the VRL Logistics has not seen any growth in revenues on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis. You should notice how their margins and profitability have changed. Strong set of numbers. VRL Logistics with strong margin expansion. Margins are almost at a three- year high. They have posted good numbers.
SJ Logistics India Ltd. :-
It has posted good set of numbers. Strong growth in quarter-on- quarter and year-on-year is also visible from SJ Logistics. If you look at their numbers,
Tega Industries Ltd. :-
we has seen 21% year-on-year and 15% revenue growth in
quarter-on-quarter. And strong profit growth quarter on quarter is significant,
year on year it is almost 52% growth strong set of numbers Tribe Industries
also posted numbers beating expectations If you look at the numbers of
Page Industries Ltd. :-
revenue is growing in year on year and quarter on quarter comparison Margins are improving Profitability is also improving in quarter on quarter and year on year comparison And they have declared a third term dividend of ₹150 per share
Swiggy Ltd. :-
हमारे समुदाय में शामिल हों और नवीनतम अपडेट्स, समाचार और जानकारी प्राप्त करें!
हमारे साथ जुड़कर आप नवीनतम समाचार, अपडेट्स और जानकारी प्राप्त कर सकते हैं जो आपके लिए महत्वपूर्ण हैं!
आइए और हमारे समुदाय का हिस्सा बनें!
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