Stock Market Analysis 05 March 25 : Sensex and Nifty's condition
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| Stock Market Analysis 05 March 25 |
Market Analysis
Today
Evening Sensex gained 740 points and
closed at 73730 while Nifty gained
255 points and closed at 22337 where Yes
Bank Nifty gained 245 points and closed at 48490 for a minute share your
views today the joy you felt when you saw your portfolio in recent times the
market has been falling and falling investors related only we have seen the
pain at least is a day ending today small caps 3% mid-caps 2 1/2% sensex Nifty
1% and most of the indices are also growing close to 3 4% small caps are also
bouncing from important support is definitely for investors Today's
unforgettable story After a series of injuries in recent times, today's
unforgettable recovery will definitely happen. Well going into the topic, what
happened overnight? The markets rose so well, not only our markets, but also
global markets, European markets also rose so much. Asian markets rose
strongly. What happened, friends? Let me tell you the real story. Yesterday, at
one point of time, the US markets fell by 2%. Our Gift Nifty also fell by 150
points. Tomorrow's opening will be very bad. Do you know why the scenario
developed that the US-Canada related harsh statements were made. The Canadians
also said that we will also impose tariffs and impose heavy taxes. So again,
Trump said that Canada will actually become our 51st state. In the United
States, you are only a governor. If you impose taxes, I will also impose taxes
on them. And finally, taxes are going ahead.
What kind of uncertainty will there
be in the next coming times? Amidst the
panic, the entire global markets have corrected in a big way overnight. But
thanks to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick, what he said is that whatever tariffs
Trump says he will impose, he is now saying that in the coming times, he will
roll them back and make them normal again. But there is only one statement from
the United States government side, the Commerce Secretary, that it will be
rolled back and normalized again.
Is it indirectly what the boss said? In fact, on some
platforms, it is also seen that they will be rolled back today. It would have
been better if these strong statements related to Canada had not come, it would
have been a little easier, but anyway, whatever tariffs they impose from their
side, they should listen to what I say or come here and set up factories or
else pay us billions of dollars in taxes. Tax us as you like. They are making
statements. Why shouldn't we? Will Lutnik come out and roll back on the style
that Trump has been acting in so far? Will this hope, Canada, Mexico, and even
China related, flow into the market? All the markets have grown strongly overnight.
In fact, they have grown so much that today, Trump has even mentioned the name
of our nation.
They are naming some countries, such as Korea, China, and
India. They are also saying that India will impose heavy taxes on us. Even if
they say that I will definitely impose reciprocal tariffs from April 2nd, even
if they speak in terms of India, why are the markets hearing this repeatedly
today? In fact, there are no scenarios that would react to this today.
In fact, due to this, India will be threatened by close to 7
billion dollars per year. India will be impacted. The data is showing, but the
markets were scared when they said tariffs would be imposed, and then cooled
off when they said they would be imposed, and then they were scared again when
they said they would be rolled back, and then recovered again.
So many times, it seems that they have been going back and
forth, and then back and forth, and then back and forth, and this time, even
such statements have not caused much reaction from investors. And today, Trump
spoke in front of Congress about very important highlights, saying that
reciprocal tariffs will start from April 2nd.
Why are we sitting here waiting while other countries are
imposing taxes on us? They brought the gold card instead of the green card,
like a gold card, so you can buy it for 41 crores, or 5 million dollars, or 5
million dollars, and buy it. It is not as if they are buying US citizenship
immediately. They talked about it as if if you put money in and get that gold
card, you will get eligibility next time.
There are statements about inflation, tax cuts in the US, the energy sector, all these and even the Chinese are saying that if the US wants a war, be it a trade war or any other kind of war, we are ready. We are also seeing responses from the Chinese embassy. So, is everything settled globally? What has happened yet? But the market has felt that it has settled and there will be no worse than this. The markets have recovered strongly globally, not in India. Let's wait and see. I waited eagerly. How will today's closing be? Because in most cases, positive news is good at the opening. It increases well. It cools down a bit in the second half.
FIS Data Update :-
By the end of the day, FIS comes in the second half and
sells. If there is buying sentiment, it is seen as an opportunity. If FIS also
sells at every rise, then FIS goes. I thought that the same thing would be seen
in today's market too. Frankly speaking, it is easy to say that I thought it
would increase after closing. In fact, in recent times, even when the market
was falling, particularly Nifty related, if anyone wants to invest, it came in
good valuations. Speaking in 20p related terms, I was not happy when it increased
today, as I was making statements. Initially, the revaluation came close to
good. It has to increase, right? It has to increase. Because after seeing such
a fall, obviously today's increased fall will fall at the end of the day.
Why did I think I was happy? But the markets closed strong
at the closing point. Here you have a question, will the market increase from
now on? The whole end is zero. My moment to be happy is, my friends, the way
price action reacted, but from the support point, even in terms of small caps,
Nifty In terms of the markets, they are saying that it is enough, I still want
to recover, but who knows, the statements made overnight, what impact the
uncertainty he has created in just one month since Trump came to power, what
impact has he created on the American economy? Even if you look at the data
points related to the economy, we do not see anything related to what he has
done. Still, the Fed took a step back due to fears that something would happen
related to inflation, which also impacted the American economy. The US markets
have fallen more from the point where they raised the issue related to tariffs,
so since he came to power, uncertainty has been maintained.
Our markets, I am saying it again. Yesterday, after I spoke
related to this PS, some of our subscribers said that the Nifty related to the
Standalone PE, Consolidated PE, some changes have been made, so this PS has
changed, and because of that, the PE Friends, I am taking all of that into consideration
and I am following and tracking the market, taking that deviation into
consideration and keeping that in mind, I am saying that in terms of Nifty, it
is good in terms of large caps, the levels are good.
I do not know how much it will fall. I am already saying
that it feels good to me. Will the market go to 21000 or 20000 from here? I
have not seen it, but the range that has come is positive for me in the coming
times. In fact, I sold FIS but still FIS related and there are any logics in the
market to stop further selling from increasing. I have also shared them with
you in our comment section. I am saying again that it is not about being happy
that it has increased today. What we as investors should do is not to look at
the market negatively when it is falling next and many people are saying that
Nifty has come to a good valuation now. When I said from the beginning, you were
positive about the market, now what are you saying now? I was positive about
the market from the beginning, but you can put money at these points.
This is a very good level. I said it when we were
approaching a few levels. If that level is also broken, the next levels that we
are looking at are also level- based. I felt that the valuations related to
them will also be good. I said the levels that I have personally tracked. Okay,
put mine aside. This will also end in another 2008.
The economy related to India will not recover. What do
global analysts say? Whatever we Indians think will suffer in the coming times.
What is the fall? Definitely, there is a possibility of Indian markets growing
well in the coming times. And Sanjeev Prasad, those who are in the market, will
definitely have an idea about his name. He is a very big bear.
Every time the market rises, it is negative. The person who
makes comments is such a person who has come up with a reasonable Nifty 50
valuation that should be the key to stock selection. Those with low risk can
take it. If someone wants to take a risk, they say that stocks that have fallen
a lot in banks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank are good companies in banks.
He himself has made statements like this and I am also
putting the valuation report related to Motilal Vasava in front of your screen.
Only the US and India have a ROE above 15 and with respect to price to
earnings, if you compare it with the global markets that you have seen, you
will also understand the position of the Indian markets comparatively.
I am saying again that you should compare not with every
country that has a low PE, but with countries that have a growth rate like our
India. In other words, look at the GDP growth rate once. I have compared it
with various countries and shown it in recent days' blogs. According to the
forward PE, the average is close to 20, but the present value is 199 billion. I
am not saying by word of mouth that we are at a 9% discount to the long-term
average valuations.
When the market fell again, and it went down a little, you said
that if it keeps falling, how many people do you think will suffer? How many
people do you think will be impacted? I am not saying to invest money. I am
telling you the same story again. Do not
bring anything that will cost us anything for short-term needs. We
should only bring money that will last for five years into the market.
That is not the whole amount. If you have money, put it in
some amount when it comes close to important levels. Otherwise, continue our
SIPs. The information coming to you from us has reached good levels. I am
saying again that it has increased even now. Do not bring the money that is for
short-term needs into the market.
According to historical data, the market will fall another
2%, 3%, 5%, 10% tomorrow morning. We
definitely have chances to grow in the future. But when it falls in the short
term, you will suffer when you do not have that money for your needs.
Therefore, I am saying again that it has increased like this. Do not bring the money that is for short-term needs
into the market. Well, the market has fallen in recent times.
Let us not neglect the positive points. Everything that is
being talked about is present and will be sustained. US bond yields are near 4.2
Have you observed the dollar index in recent times? Have you ever seen it at
105 B? Do you know the main reason for this? US Ukraine-related minerals Further
discussions are going to be held in terms of the deal, peace tax, Zelensky made
some statements related to this.
I should not have said the words I spoke that day related to
the US. I said that we will definitely work together with US President Trump,
we will meet in the coming times, we will have discussions related to the
mineral deal and move forward. If Ukraine is united with the US again, there
will be no uncertainty related to Europe.
Therefore, their currency, the Euro, has grown strongly,
which is impacting the dollar index. The dollar index has had a good impact on
the downside and it has also become a dollar week on the USD INR. The Indian
rupee, which is normal, is becoming a dollar week. We see that the Indian rupee is also becoming
strong and we are forgetting the real issue.
Did we think that there was a meeting of the National
People's Congress of the National People's Congress of China today? In fact,
they did Look here with important statements. No sector grew by 4%. Metals grew
by 4%. I will talk about each one carefully. Understand carefully what
statements they made. They put the GDP estimate close to 5% in 2025 and
increased the deficit from 3% to 4% in budget related.
This means that they will indirectly give a strong push to
the economy in the coming times. The most important thing is that what is the
accusation against China so far? They are producing cheap steel and dumping it
in other countries. They are taking decisions related to that. There are
decisions to cut output related to steel.
Think that China's presence has decreased globally. There is
good demand related to steel. So, in steel or other metals, the Chinese are
dumping it in other countries. There are
chances that the prices will be elevated if they go back a little in the global
supply, so today we saw a strong move in the metal space.
Finally, when it comes to the real matter, how will FIS be?
The main point for me is to be happy that it has increased today, rather than worrying
about whether it will fall tomorrow. This is confirmation of where the market
will stabilize. If FIS's selling minimum is maintained consistently below 3000
crores for a week, then it is even better if it comes close to 2000 crores or
1000 crores. In other words, if it comes positive, it is even better.
But after seeing such excessive selling every time, I think
we should see at least 1000 crores closer to 2000 to 1000 crores than positive.
Okay, it is not possible. It can be said that the market has stabilized after
continuing for a week. But I told you,
why is there a chance that the market will stabilize in recent times? Where do
we have a way of defense? Mutual funds are investing some money because they
think this is a good range.
However, they have invested a little bit in the market, but
in recent times, they have invested a little bit excessively in the market. Over
the period, FIR selling has been decreasing. But if it does not decrease, at
some point, after they put the desired levels in the market, further FI selling
will also impact the market.
Therefore, our prime criterion should be how FIS selling
will be further. Rather than being happy about how much DIS buying has
increased, we should look for our real logic in how much FIS selling has
decreased. Some interesting data points are appearing related to FIs.
SEBI is also trying to ease the rules related to short
selling that they have been asking for a long time, and the Government of India
is also making pro-FIS statements. There
are expectations that there is a possibility of making decisions. Leaving aside
whether they will happen or not, after selling so much at least, even after
approaching a certain valuation, it does not seem logical for them to sell so
aggressively.
Who is not supporting me? I am watching for that point. You
must have already heard this rule related to NSC. But let's talk about it in
detail in the news topic. Is NSC a head? We are making these changes. What are
the rules in other countries? We should put the same day as the expiry date and
all exchanges should follow the same expiry day.
So how do you say that speculation will be less? But there is
a very interesting logic behind this. That is why BSC stock fell. Let's talk
about it in the news topic. And I forgot to mention one more thing. Related to
China, it seems that China has increased defense pending orders by 7.2%. This
is geopolitical.
I think the uncertainties are very high. Who will benefit
first? That is, defense companies. I mentioned it in yesterday's blog. The
Chinese are also increasing their defense-related budgets. Some countries in
Europe are also increasing their defense-related budgets. But this uncertainty
related to Trump has cooled off. Again, the elevations related to defense space
may not be very visible. So, the more uncertain Trump is, the more
defense-related budgets will be important.
Ultimately, I want to tell everyone who is wondering whether
the market has increased today or whether it will continue to increase or fall.
According to valuations and logically, the market has reacted in terms of price
action to geopolitical tensions that are so negative. After such a recent fall,
we have a chance to stabilize here after a very strong fall.
But tomorrow, which is not expected to be positive. If it falls again in the morning, you will be hurt, so we should learn to be neutral as an investor. Because when it rises, you are happy now, right? If the market falls again tomorrow, we will have to take double the pain. Therefore, only after we observe what kind of stability there is going to be in the market for at least another week, we will understand whether this recovery is a real recovery or not. Personally, I felt very good about the way the market reacted today. The ending work also closed strongly on the upside. What are your opinions? Is this recovery a real recovery or a fake one? I have expressed my opinions very openly. I have shared my opinion with you. If possible, share your views related to this recovery in the comment section.
New F&O Rules :-
Traders have become a bit confused due to this single update made by NSC. Keep traders aside. Those who invested in BSC also got into trouble today because the market has risen so much. This is the main reason. So both traders and investors, particularly those who have invested in BSC, should pay close attention to this. This single decision taken by NSC may not have any impact on traders, but it has impacted BSC. What is the decision? Weekly contracts related to Nifty, monthly contracts, quarterly contracts, half-yearly contracts, all of these also expire on Thursday. They changed it to Monday for us. So, quarterly, monthly, half-yearly, we are getting very confused. Put all of them aside and think of them as weekly contracts because month The end contract can also be seen as a weekly contract. In general purpose, there are four expirations for four weeks. Every weekly contract that used to expire on Thursday has been changed to Monday. Due to this, is there a chance that NSC will have a huge profit? There is a slight advantage, but who can have a huge loss? BSC will have a loss. I will tell you how and traders related to this very important thing. I will share it in the ending of this whole discussion. Listen carefully. But first, let's see what kind of loss BSC will have. To know that, how it was in the past? Friday was the expiration of Sensex. Thursday was the expiration of Nifty 50. But due to this, BSC did not get any big advantage. Most of the traders, that is, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, focus more on Nifty 50. Who cares about Sensex? Since only Friday is remembered for Sensex, what BSC did wisely was to change the Sensex that was on Friday to Tuesday. So the advantage of removing the Friday Sensex and changing it to Tuesday is that when the Thursday Nifty 50 expires, traders will have the next immediate expiry Sensex A. Therefore, those who do Sensex A on Friday also do it, that is, those who do a little more than they did before. Even on Monday, there was some focus on Sensex. Tuesday is also the expiry, so the focus was on Sensex. Before that, there was only one day of focus. Now, to increase the market share next to Sensex, one, two, three days, the strategic decision that BSC takes from Friday to Tuesday is to keep changing the decision. Keeping changing the Sensex has given BSC a good edge. The NSC people noticed this and changed the Sensex from this Friday to Tuesday. They changed to BSC, they are slowly gaining market share, but we changed to those days, that is, even on those days, if Nifty 50 did not go to BSC, the market share should have gone, the focus should have been NSCA, right? But we also do one thing, if there is a gap between you and us, you will get an advantage, so what I will do is not Thursday, I will also come to Monday, I am bringing the expiration to Monday, so that after my expiration, in the coming times, Nifty 50 also comes from Thursday to Monday, so my expiration is only after Nifty 50 expires, the Sensex expires, so it goes to BSC only on one day, the remaining days are Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, but Sensex and Nifty are considered equal, and usually most of the traders have the opportunity to trade more Nifty related to NSC. Sensex has a chance to decrease in terms of market share in the past in terms of FNO. Due to this, will NSC have any major advantage? I don't think so. I have an advantage but in a small way. But who has a big disadvantage? That's what BSC is saying because I said before, there was a Friday edge, there was a Monday edge, Tuesday was also an edge as an expiry day, but now if NSC comes to Monday, the Friday edge will decrease a little, the Monday edge will decrease a little. Tuesday should be normal for them. May be there will be some increase in the rest of the two days. Will it be a little better than what it has been so far? Due to the absence of Nifty 50, but they see the impact of the main days as negative. That's why we haven't seen much growth in BSC stock, which has increased so much in the market today. Right, this has become the BSC point of view. And traders also understand one thing that the contract related to Nifty 50 will expire on Thursday, not on Monday. There is no need to remember that the weekly contracts, not on monthly, quarterly, half yearly and even Nifty 50 contracts will expire on Thursday, not on Monday. The main point is that from April 4th, it will be the first expiry and even Bank Nifty Fin Nifty Mid Cap Nifty Nifty Next 50. All these contracts and all the monthly contracts related to stocks will expire on Thursday, not on Monday. Traders will remember that the decision is being made. But the BSC investors will have some impact on investors. The speculations in the market that it will go negative have been reflected in the stock, but here BSC can take another step. What if BSC again? If you sell the Sensex expiry on Tuesday to Thursday, then after the Nifty expiry on Monday, then again on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, the Sensex sketch is true. After Thursday, maybe Friday will be the focus on Nifty 50. So I am sure that the BSC will change the Sensex expiry in the coming days. We do not know whether the stock will rise or fall on that day, but we are not talking about the impact related to the stock, but in terms of business, the Sensex expiry on Tuesday is likely to change in the coming times. If it comes to Thursday again, will it bring Nifty 50 to Wednesday again? So if they bring it to Monday again, will they bring it to Tuesday or Friday again? I do not know where this impact will be. I will tell you this simply and logically. See what the NSC people mean by Sensex. If you put the Nifty 50 expiry next to the Sensex expiry without giving a gap of more days, without giving a gap of even a single day, then it will be profitable for NSC. Therefore, wherever the Sensex expiry is, close to it, one day before it, one day after it, one day before it, but for BSC, the gap between Nifty 50 and Sensex is as much as the gap between them, and the number of days the gap is, the edge will come to Sensex. Therefore, Sensex means BSC. However, they want a gap of two to three days for their Sensex expiry. Accordingly, they keep changing the dates for both of them, confusing the traders. Let's wait for BSC's answer.
Promoter Buying List :-
This is from January 1st to March 3rd. See how many transactions the promoters have made in relation to which companies. Here is the number of How many times have they bought in transactions, that is, every time they find it attractive, they try to buy it. How many times have the promoters bought in which companies? How many times have they bought? How much quantity have they bought? Quantity is not enough, because depending on the stock price, you can buy 1000 or even a lakh, but what is its value? It is most important to arrange it in a proper order. Since they tried to buy, stocks have fallen in recent times. So how much has the stock price fallen from there? How much has the stock price fallen from the 52-week high? And is that company mid-cap, small-cap, large-cap, so putting all the big companies first and putting the small companies last? All this is valuable. Promoters are buying those businesses without checking them. Insiders are buying them. That means they can leave. That means they can sometimes become a trap. So, promoters may be buying them to reflect in the data. So, our pure execution is not that someone is buying them. If these promoters are buying in this company, they must know something. Is there any data that can be useful for us to know? In those companies, we need such useful data to study whether the company we are tracking has recently made any announcements, made capex, announced the company's growth plans, etc. In a market fall, such useful data helps us in the work we want to do. So, I am putting this data in front of you.
RBI New Bad news for NBFC?
Anchorage and today have you noticed that Bajaj Finance or Chola Mandal but most of the NBFCs have fallen today. The main reason for that is that RBI is telling big NBFC companies that they are not giving lines of credit as they like without knowing the real time data of the people who are giving loans. Does this make any sense to us? Look here. Perpetual lines of credit. Even if you try to google this, you will see some data that we do not understand. I will explain this to you in a simple way. Let's say you are an NBFC company. You have data related to me. I have account details. All these. What are you doing? Every month, here is this for me. You have this pre-approved personal loan. Otherwise, you have a car loan. Otherwise, you have a vehicle loan. Whatever you want, you take it and send it to me every month. You will access and tell me what if you do not have my CIBIL score. How did I give you credit data even though it is in the past? You will continue to give me loans based on the money you have received. If I go into a financial crisis at some point and take out all the loans, that is, I have taken loans from banks, I have taken loans from you, I have taken loans from everyone, you will be at risk, so don't give perpetual lines of credit without tracking proper data, as RBI is saying. This is not yet official. The concern is that the RBI is giving out through sources. Due to that data, NBFCs have not given pre- approved loans, car loans, home loans, etc., but if they have not given all these and got money, they will not give it only if they apply. As on NBFC, you don't say, take this loan or that loan, if he wants it, he will apply and give it when he applies. But if you give a pre-approved loan yourself without applying, he will just With a single click, it gets a bank account and when there is a financial crisis, everyone gets pre-approved from everyone. Everyone gets affected. And the same thing happens in banks. Banking apps also keep giving us pre-approved loans. That is, when did you actually get money from banks, how much salary did you get, what are you spending on, how does your net worth change on a monthly basis? There is real-time data. NBFCs have what they give loans to, what is the loan repayment, and what is our data beyond that? They go there. So, banks are not restricted here. The RBI is trying to restrict NBFCs. It has not been officially confirmed. Some say that RBI has said this. Some say that RBI has advised. But it does not come in the form of rules. But NBFC-related loans are not pre-approved. You can get loans yourself without asking for them. The only thing that is given is not to do it like banks, banks have real-time data, you should not do that, it seems that RBI is suggesting that, let's see if these come in the form of rules, otherwise all these are just rumors and not facts, will RBI clarify that we did not say that, but it will be updated in the coming times, but with a fear that this will happen, most of the NBFC companies today, when we have such a market rise, they should definitely increase, right? It did not happen, but it fell.
Hitachi Energy India Ltd. :-
Next, some stocks are upgrading relatedly. This is very interesting data, they are sharing it. You should pay attention if anyone is investing in Hitachi Energy. In recent times, they have posted good numbers, after good numbers, they have also given strong guidance. Related to this, Goldman Sachs has released an interesting note in which they say that they will get orders close to Rs 10,000 crores. We expect According to the guidance they are giving, it is likely to go to 18 thousand crores and their margins are also expected to be 8% in the previous years. It is expected to increase by more than 200 basis points and then in the financial years, the margins will increase and increase the orders. Then, increasing the margins will lead to good profits for them. Overall, we thought that their previous view would go to 8250, but it is not.
M&M Ltd. :-
Now, we are seeing that this particular company will go to 13350. The main reason for the stock to rise close to 8% today is that UBS is related to M&M. Something will happen to Tesla. The stock fell 19% in recent times due to fears. It was an overreaction. Tesla came and did M&M. But other Indian car companies are not doing it, it is a premium segment, so UBS has shared its opinion that the stock will increase. What they are saying is that in the coming times, whether it is SUVs, electric vehicles, tractors, or even mood, volumes will grow strongly, profits will also come in good, which will take M&M to the top. In the past, they said that they had cut the target they had given. What they said in the past was that it would go to 3460. But they cut it and went to 3300. But there is no water to fear. UBS also released a note with a confidence that the stock will increase from here and give profits to investors. With these two notes, the stocks have increased today.
AC Shortage
According to the stories of Next NTV Profit, it is known that this time the shortage of AC is likely to be higher. Every summer, we have heavy sun due to AC. We see a lot of demand for refrigerators, coolers and even cool drinks during the season. But the interesting thing is that when we think of ACs, who remembers them? Oltas Blue Star is the only one. But Amber Enterprises, who does business with them, is this pack durable? Johnson Controls, Hitachi. They also have an advantage due to these. NTV Profit is saying that AC production is likely to be hit in April due to demand. But due to compressor-related delays, AC production is likely to be hit in April. But at the same point, sales increase by 25 to 30%, so there is scope for out-of-stock situations due to this high demand and compressor delays. Indian AC market situations are out-of-stock situations and IMD is also normal. Temperatures will be above normal this time. In some states of India, the temperature may even reach 40° this time. IMD reports are coming that the demand for ACs will increase in the coming times. They are saying that many companies will be out of stock due to compressor delays. If there are any people who want to buy ACs, that is, if there are any people who want to install ACs in the summer, then try to buy them first. Is this a good profit for AC companies? Let's think logically. The companies mentioned in the beginning, AC companies, have seasonality in everything. Every year, they definitely have good sales in the summer season. No doubt about it. But if you compare it year on year, it is also increasing this time. That is a very good thing. The market takes it positively, but they say that they will be out of stock due to compressor delays. They know that the demand for summer should also increase. But the compressor is delayed. If it is really out of stock because of that, then it is not a big boosting factor for business and sales, but due to such statements, everyone buys ACs in advance and there are still huge sales in that summer time and pre-summer sales are good, summer sales are good. If all this comes with stronger numbers than expected, without any compulsory deleveraging, all this is just like rumors and finally good sales happen in pre-summer and summer, then the market will be surprised. Hope you understand this logic.
Short selling
SEBI has imposed restrictions related to short selling in stocks. In the past, they have imposed restrictions related to short selling. If they are trying to ease the rules related to it, updates are appearing. Data shows that short selling is allowed in all other stocks, except those in the t2 t segment. This is very important because this is FIS. The main demand is that non-FNO stocks are banned, I think it will be implemented further strongly from January 2024, which means that cash market volumes will also fall strongly because FIS or institutional players are more active in short selling that to non-FNO stocks, so stopping it or banning it will also impact liquidity. Some brokers have gone to SEBI and SEBI is taking it into consideration. Updates are showing that if friends allow short selling, liquidity will definitely be better, but along with that, volatility will also increase. So if something is a bit expensive, big players will definitely try to make a profit through short selling and that Is it better to remove or keep it? That is, we should always leave the market somewhat free. Whatever is happening in other countries, market forces are balanced only when they are allowed to happen in our country. Therefore, SEBI will definitely be happy if FIS takes this decision. After this, we will see how FIS's activity changes in terms of cash market. At least SEBI and the government are also taking some decisions related to FIS. If they feel that they are changing things in terms of tax, if they use it in terms of rules, they will also have a chance to rethink investments related to India.
RED
ALERT!
We should talk about next-gen engineering. Whenever any stock is falling heavily, if you have any, let me know. I said that I would share further details in the comment section. There is a 35-34% retailer shareholding, but our Many of them did not seem to be holding it, but those of us who said that we are holding it, let's share important data with them. I am discussing this topic again. Friends, now what you are seeing on the screen is Anmol Singh Jaggi, who recently sold some of his shares related to Gensol Engineering. If you look at the statements he made, what he said, if you look at what he said in the last investor meet, we will become net debt free. In the coming times, they are telling long stories related to debt reduction. They sold very interesting themes to investors, that is, they sold dreams. Now they are not able to repay the loans they took. They gave a default rating related to them. Leave that aside. ICRA is another rating agency. What are they saying? They have committed fraud. They are making updates saying that they have given the leading documents to the loans and have committed fraud. Out of these 94000 investors, if we put aside all the other investors, there are approximately 92000 retail investors and public investors. So how did they downgrade them and give them a default rating? That's the end of the story. Now ICRA is also accusing them of giving wrong information and taking loans. This is even bigger. They could not pay the money. Well, their financial situation is not good. The accusation that they have given wrong documents and taken loans was made against them by ICRA and the rating agency. Gensol should come out and clear this as soon as possible. It is not one rating agency, two rating agencies came out and spoke. And if Gensol Engineering has been impacted in the coming times, who are they? When you see that loans have been given, the people you see on the screen are those who have direct exposure to term loans related to Gensol Engineering. IREDA has 636 crores, PFC 335 crores, ICI Bank and Bandhan Bank have also given loans of around 25-26 crores to Gensol Engineering. What I want to tell investors is that it will take the same amount, don't make an average. If you want to decide after getting clarification from the company, wait for the company management to say what they want, but if you don't think it will happen, please don't buy because it is available in PE. The guidance given by the management is the same, what has changed? If you think about business, there is an allegation that loans were taken with wrong documents. Did you see that until it is cleared, no investor, even big investors, will get involved, no matter how much it costs. This is for those who have already invested. I am saying that those who want to buy new, just say, "Will it fall?" and then buy or average it, it will be a completely blind move in such cases. Be careful,
Jai Corp Ltd. :-
This particular market fell not in the fall, it fell before that. What is the main reason for this? They have a large amount of lands under them that are worth thousands of crores. Their value is in thousands of crores, but it was said that they sold them to Reliance Industries in a very short time. That was a big scandal. At that point, when the data came, the stock fell by close to 20% that day. Because whoever is running that Jai Corp company is called Mukesh Ambani's right hand. If it is a right hand, then okay. But what about the situation of the investors who invested in Jai Corp? The investor gives that valuation to it with the belief that the value of that land will be in thousands of crores. Night after night, he meets with Mukesh Ambani and does this. Will they sell it? At that time, all the investors were talking loudly, saying that this is a big mistake, but the answer seems to be coming now. The CBI has registered an FIR against the owner of Jai Car, Anand Jain, for almost 2434 crores of fraud and if the CBI is filing a case, the data will be visible. Let's wait and see if there will be any final justification. And the CBI filed a case against him, and the stock has gone up. Will there be any justice for the investors? The government will come forward regarding the transactions that took place in the past. Something will happen. Investors have a small positive hope. But let's wait and see what the final conclusion will be.
Granules India Ltd. :-
Granules has received a warning letter from the US FDA in the past. What was the warning letter for? Related to a very important manufacturing plan. You have released that data, saying that you have clearly stated what the reason is. You can see the data that they received that warning letter from the USFD. There are data integrity issues, quality issues and contamination related issues. Small animals, birds, insects are also entering their plant. Proper hygiene is not maintained. Return procedures are not followed adequately. All this data is being said in the observations of the USFD. It is because the Gagilapur facility contributes 70% to their revenues and they are not able to maintain this facility properly. If it is not good in terms of stock related, but this is already the stock that has reacted. When the warning letter came, the stock fell heavily. Probably after the warning letter, they will adjust all these and go to the USFD again. So, the stock will be big. There was no reaction after the updates, but investors should also know that they had received a warning letter with some observations, so I am presenting the data fresh, so there is no impact due to this.
Tata Motors Ltd. :-
Tata Motors has started its journey related to hydrogen truck trails. These trails will run in the next 24 months, meaning two years. These trails will run related to hydrogen internal combustion engine H2IC and fuel cell. These trails are being updated related to Tata Motors.
Grasim Industries Ltd. :-
Grasim has entered paint production. Aditya Birla has entered paint production. Birla Opus Paints is increasing its capacities. It is seen that they are increasing their capacities related to water-based solvent- based and distemper.
Avanti Feeds Ltd. :-
Avanti Feeds is there, they are also entering the pet market. It seems that they are starting Avanti Pet Care Private Limited, which is mainly bringing cat food. It seems that Avanti First is entering the Hyderabad market first. When we say Avanti, we remember shrimp. Shrimp means this. But now they are also entering the pet market, particularly the cat food market.
Nazara Technologies Ltd. :-
Nazara Technologies is said to have bought Zepto Labs for about 1 million dollars, that is, 8 crore 74 lakhs, and is strengthening their global gaming portfolio. This is a UK-based company.
Apollo Micro Systems Ltd. :-
Apollo Micro Systems has received new orders worth 50 crore 97 lakhs from multiple private companies. Next said that these have been received in the last four months. They have made updates that they will execute.
L&T Ltd. :-
They are telling the exchanges that L&T has got major residential projects in Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai. They have got contracts for two ultra-luxury high rise towers in Mumbai, 14 luxury towers in Bangalore and 25 luxury towers in Chennai on a design building basis.
Muthoot Micro Finance Ltd. :-
The
updates show that they have got the contract for Muthut Micro Finance, which is
under Muthut Finance, and they have got approval to do Aadhaar and KYC for this
company. Furthermore, they will start getting revenues from this space as well.
Therefore, their business will increase due to financial inclusion with
tech-driven solutions.
Neogen Chemicals Ltd. :-
We should talk about Neogen Chemicals. Has anyone heard that there was a fire incident in their plant in Gujarat. There were no injuries, even though there is insurance for it, there will be damage, but the plant will not be damaged, but the production will be temporarily impacted and they will inform us further when to restart. Neogen Chemicals is saying that as part of a one-time settlement.
Reliance Infrastructure Update:-
Reliance Infrastructure is clearing their debt with Jammu and Kashmir Bank, which is discharging the full and final debt by paying approximately Rs 90 crore 50 lakhs along with interest. They have cleared all the debts and have updated this bank.
Welspun Specialty Solutions Ltd. :-
Welspun Specialty is related to their super thermal power project worth Rs 231 crore 77 lakhs from BHL, and they have received 4050 tons of stainless-steel seamless boiler tubes from BHL, which is located in Trichy. Information is going to the exchanges that they have received the order. The exchanges are being updated that.
RVNL Ltd.:-
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited has received a project worth Rs 720.29 crore from Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board.
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