Stock Market Analysis 20 Feb 25 - Sensex fell 425 points, is Tesla's entry in India a threat to auto stocks? Complete market analysis
Stock Market Analysis 21 Feb 25
Today Evening Sensex fell 425 points and closed at 75311 while Nifty fell 117 points and closed at
22796 where as Bank Nifty fell 353
points and closed at 48981 in recent times market multiple time support level
in Nifty what do you mean by 22700 to 800 because on January 27th Nifty was at
22 2787 on February 12th Velin was at
22798 on February 14th Velin was at 22775 on February 17th Velin was at
22725 where as today Velin was at 22720 it is clear from this that 700 Jones particularly
750-720 is coming close five times From
here, from January 27, 2025 to February 21, 2025, Nifty took support for five
times and today we also saw support there and yesterday,
FID Data Update :-
after a long time, FID data was updated. Almost 3300 crores were sold in yesterday's market. I have also put it in the blog comment section and even today, FIS is selling close to 3449 crores with their usual activity data. Okay, when it comes to global markets, US markets are down, but Asian markets or European markets are better. Regarding US markets, Walmart's numbers came yesterday. They are a consumer-faced company, so overall sentiment may be weak. Yesterday, we saw a fall in US markets, but the main reason for the markets to rise was related to China or Handong. Look at Alibaba stock, it rose by 14 1/2%, the main reason is that their A&C business beat expectations, so it is related to the entire Asian markets, particularly Handsong related, solid gains, but for us to see this, Alibaba's role in their index increasing by 3.8%, the overall consumer sentiment related to the US, with Walmart's weekly performance, the overall consumer sentiment related to the economy, we saw a fall in all the overall stocks yesterday, but aside from that, what is the situation of our Indian markets? In recent times, if we put Airtel aside, then they were selling close to 1800 crores, and then they were thinking that they had retreated a little, but now they are selling 3300 crores again, and today they are selling above 3400 crores, so FIS's selling has decreased at this point. We understand that it is not right, but today I found it somewhat interesting. In small caps, there was no aggressive selling as in recent times. However, it was not as aggressive a fall and the main reason for the fall today is that Tesla is coming to India, which is a big threat to M&M, Tata Motors, Maruti, Hyundai, etc. If they come and believe in cars, EV cars, all of them will also suffer huge losses. I will tell you in detail about this. Is there really an impact on M&M? Is there an impact on Tata Motors? I am putting the same topic in the companies' data analysis. Don't miss it. So, probably with that reason, we have noticed weakness in the main index like Nifty Sensex today and FIS is not only in the cash market, but also in the futures market and options market. In terms of index, it is heavy. They are maintaining shots at 84% net shots in terms of contracts, the highest ever contracts present lot size is 75. If we put that into perspective, they are holding shots at such levels that they have never seen before in the past and today the market is falling and it has definitely created some fear related to investors because after a very drastic fall and then a big pain, it has been in the green for a day or two recently. The opinion that the fall will stop at any time is a little disturbed by the little fall coming today. But friends, what will decide whether this recent fall will stop or not is this fi selling that they are doing constantly. This selling has the potential to create pain related to the markets in the short term. Therefore, even in the coming times, if FIS selling If you take any drastic step and the market falls, remember that even if the market falls, you will see selling in the market in the past, even in the name of FIS related, for many reasons. Presently, the main correction was 15% from September to February 2025, but in many cases, corrections were seen in the market and how many days they continued. You can also see here. But even after all this, we are still at all-time highs in 2024. Stock markets have grown very well. So in every past year, after the market fall, when it rises in the years, it looks like an opportunity for us and I am sure that now, since FIS is selling and creating an impact in the market, after some time, FIS will give us a good opportunity to buy stocks at that time. We will remember this fall as an opportunity in the future, so even in the coming times, the investors who are seeing any pressure related to the market should not get worried. But I am truly disappointed. I thought that FIS selling would stop in recent times, but after 1880 crore yesterday's number, there was some disappointment and today's number will create further disappointment. But as we discussed before, the markets are near important supports. Not only Nifty, small caps have also bounced a little from the supports. But the pain is that if they continue selling FIS like this, what direction the markets will take in the coming days is a decision that is not in our hands. For how many days will they continue selling in the coming times and in what quantum? The fact that they are selling in such an amount, that too, since the last half of September, their selling has been so consistent on the Indian equity markets, is a big red flag for us. But I said in yesterday's blog that according to the data points coming from the RBI side, growth in India will pick up in the coming few months, demand will pick up in rural and urban areas as well And the change taken by the Indian government, that income tax related change, that new decision, has not created any impact on the market, but really, with that change, there will be money in the hands of many people, that impact on consumption will be positive, right? So, we have to underline that when all this is reflected in the market in the coming times, when it is seen in the data, the market will also try to factor it in.
M&M, TATA Motors Update :-
If you notice today, the Nifty Auto Index has corrected by 2.58%, and even M&M's share has also fallen by 16% in the last few days and is close to 6 today. Most of the other auto stocks have corrected. The main reason for this is that the Government of India is going to reduce the tax on electric vehicles coming from other countries from 110% to 15%. So, Elon Musk will bring his Tesla to the markets in the coming times. If Musk brings Tesla to India, M&M, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, all of them are also selling electric vehicles. So there will be a threat to everyone. There will be competition for everyone. Most of the auto stocks have fallen in the market today, but let's talk about reality. Before we talk, those who have Tesla-related car ideas should tell me. According to knowledge, they will bring their own model three into the market.Even if you look at the expected 15% tax rate in the Indian markets, it will easily be above 33 lakhs. It will not be below 33 lakhs. In that case, how will it compete with Tata Motors, M&M, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and EVs in India? How will it threaten any of these auto companies? Is there a possibility of a threat to anyone? According to the range that is present, M&M will be threatened by some of the more advanced EV vehicles that they have recently launched. But Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, or Hyundai will not have any pricing range that will impact their electric vehicles in their range. It should be remembered that India is the third largest auto space, which is the country with the third largest sales for auto players in the entire world. Many players here are So they will survive, all the car companies in other countries are looking to come to India. In fact, Tesla is also there. And do you think why did the government suddenly cut the rate from 110% to 15%? In fact, this is positive for the stock market because on February 19, in our blog, Trump is angry on India, 100% tax. In the blog, I showed you the data that is officially on the White House website. In the discussion between Elon Musk and Trump, it is difficult to sell cars in India. Look, this Elon Musk is taking huge taxes to sell. What does that mean? Elon Musk says that if we want to sell there, we have to pay 100 percent tax. And then we should also pay the same. When they take 100% of our company in India and sell it, their cars are coming here. If we want to sell any of their elements here, we should also pay the same. Elon Musk goes and sets up a company there. There is nothing wrong with selling, but if you take the cars here and sell them there, they will take 100%, I highlighted India as an example, directly mentioning India. Look at the statements made by Trump and Alanus, what kind of environment has been created in the market with these statements, which indirectly say that if Tesla does not come to India or you do not reduce taxes, I will impose taxes. Is that some kind of little blackmail? And here we go to Ego and if they blackmail us, should we reduce or reduce our tariffs? If not, we will also have to face the next response from there. So, America is not a small country, is it not? We are not a small country, but from their point of view, if you impose so much tax on us, we will also impose it. In that case, the two are very much against each other. If we impose 100% tariffs, we understand in the calculation who will lose if we impose more losses. Obviously, if we have more losses, we will discuss this and make changes related to it. Probably, if the government is going that way, it will be seen. But remember, it is not that easy to say that we will bring it from 110% to 15%, but there will be no discussions. This is not yet officially coming. I think there will be any updates. In the coming times, if someone wants to come to India and sell cars to us, sell them for so many years, sell them for two years, three years, but within this time, set up a manufacturing facility here. Only they will get that benefit. If you do not set up a manufacturing facility, there will be such a penalty on you. Along with the manufacturing facility, you should also develop infrastructure related to charging. You should also develop the Indian EV ecosystem related to India. They should participate in growth, greenfield and brownfield projects related to terms and conditions will be brought to India. How can they say that they will impose 15% tax on every company in the world? I don't expect this from the Indian government side either. But with this state, Trump's focus is on India, which has also reduced the tax rate, which was close to 100%, to 15%, at least we are in the first line. When it comes to imposing any taxes, India has taken this step. So, when we look at it from the overall country side, we should definitely look at it as a strategic decision and again we should approach the companies. For me, this will have an impact on Maruti, Hyundai, Tata Motors and the EV vehicles that have been launched so far. However, I don't think it will have an impact on Ginta, Mahindra and Mahindra. That too should be a very small portion, because I said, even if we bring the Model 3, Okay, it is almost 33 lakhs in such a price range, these are also not comparable. When will it threaten M&M? I mean, for India, if they bring something with a strong pricing range, like 25 lakhs or below that, then it will definitely threaten our Indian players. But Tesla has no cars related to it, no cars in the range that is currently present are suitable for it. We do not know whether they will launch new vehicles. Even I said that the government will definitely say that manufacturing should be set up here. The Indian government is probably saying that such a manufacturing plant is also possible. It is seen on some platforms like Twitter that a 5 lakh manufacturing unit is also being set up in India and which states are competing for it. So this is definitely the Indian government. I think it will be a strategic deal, so when we went to India in recent times, Modi met with Trump and Elon Musk. So here, Elon Musk highlighted that Tesla is not just imposing 100% tax on these cars, but rather, he said that if we can keep ourselves on the edge in the tariff game by not imposing tariffs on us and not making wrong projections, then this decision will be a success for India as a whole. I am saying this again in terms of stocks, Tesla's car range is not in the price range that competes with the cars in the Indian market. We need to see if they will bring cars in another price range. When the market gets clarity, if they are launching cars for 30 lakhs or 40 lakhs, then what do you think today? If they react, they will show the opposite reaction. No, we are thinking that they will bring a car for India even in 20 lakhs or 22 lakhs. Then obviously, there is a chance that the current reaction will double. The whole point is that they will bring it at any price. Let's wait and see.
Health Insurance Company Updates :-
according to the updates coming from sources, pollution is increasing very much in our country. Due to this, most of the insurance companies are thinking of increasing the premiums related to health insurance in the coming times. And further, I am also putting the details related to this in front of you on the screen. We know that pollution is increasing in the cities of many states. Due to this, the people living in those areas will have to face the pollution. It seems that health insurance companies are also thinking of increasing health insurance premiums. I have been saying this for a long time. If someone is delaying, then let's take health insurance. But if you want to take it again after two months or three months, then try to take it now. Because due to this increasing pollution, with the coming days, if they are increasing these premiums, you may have to pay 10-15% more money than usual. What is a good health insurance policy and where should you go to take a health insurance policy? If you have any doubts, take the advice of a good advisor and how to take good health insurance for your family. You will find links in the description comment section. Take a look at the links.
SEBI Update :-
SEBI has said that small caps and mid-caps are too much. Farth means that you see foam in your teas, coffees and even detergents when you put them in water. Even if you say it like that, it will hurt you, so be careful. Did you say it a long time ago? Related to this, I asked the SEBI Chairman again, " After what you said, it has fallen a lot. Do you think that there is still such a bubble that is worth it? Midcaps and small caps related to the fact that people still want to be alert? Listen to what the SEBI Chairman said. Midcaps and small caps. I think that at the point in time when the regulator felt the need to make a statement about it, the statement was made today. The regulator feels no need to make an additional statement. When there is a fourth in it, more money is coming into mutual funds. But we thought that at that time, we made that statement, but today, after such a fall, in these circumstances, we are not really like that. The SEBI Chairman is saying that he does not want to make a statement and that he does not want to give an alert to the investor community.
IPO Data Update :-
the main reason for putting this important data on your screen is that many people apply for IPOs at whatever valuation they see in the name of a name they know. Secondly, after listing, they see a gain of 50% or 100% and buy here, and they apply for many IPOs with the FOMO of saying, "If I buy here, I will get another 100% gain." FOMO in the sense of buying where I will miss out means buying wherever it falls. So if you look at the screen here, in the last three years, almost 23 startup IPOs have come out, out of which only seven are trading above their listing price. The remaining 16 are trading 35% below their listing price. You can also see what they are on the screen here. Paytm fell by 61%, Nykaa fell by 50%, Ola Electric also corrected heavily from the listing price, so we will use it, right? We have Ola Electric two-wheeler. I order from Nykaa regularly, I order from Swiggy, I buy for my children related to First Cry, I use products related to Mama Earth. All this is okay. We entered based on this, it should not be at what valuation we are actually entering. How much has their IPO price increased from here? I have a margin of safety from here, but further, the guidance given by the management is related to their growth. But if you are entering just because it has increased so much since the IPO time without checking all these, then save this image once. It is very rare that after being listed with so many listing games, there are companies that have increased 100% to 50% from there as well. Create the biggest nightmare. What Idea Forge has done is that it has not given any positive hope for a single day since it was listed. Those who bought after the IPO have lost nearly 70% since the listing. This stock has been falling since July 2023. So, whether the company is good or bad, it should be analyzed correctly. But what is the price at which it is entering? What is the valuation? This is the main thing to know. If you are new to the stock market and don't know that, do n't enter it on your own. Stay with mutual funds. Also, there are IPOs that have recently come into the market and created a good buzz and have grown significantly. You can also see the data here on how much they have corrected from their peak. Mobic Kwik 54% Dam Capital 44% Swiggy 39% War Energies 38% NTPC Green 32% IG 31% Neva Bhupa 29% You can also see the data here on how much companies have fallen from their highs.
Kinetic Engineering Ltd. :-
This is a very rare name in the stock market, but outside, you must have already heard of Luna. Kinetic scooters were very close to motorcycles from 1990 to 2000. They made great transmissions and some main shafts and other products. They also started a business related to EV controllers recently. They are updating that they are entering the battery manufacturing division with an investment of 50 crores. It is a small investment, not a big one, but with this investment, they are going to produce almost 60,000 battery packs, particularly two-wheeler and three-wheeler related batteries. The Kinetic Group is updating that this is a very small company, a company with an investment of almost 440 crores. It is already close to 64p and I know that the stock has recently increased by close to 50% from around 140-150. Probably the announcements may have passed to anyone who is closely related to them. There is no strong growth in recent sales. I am saying on a quarterly basis. I am saying this in 2024. If we look at it on an annual basis, we will see gradual growth along with improving their profitability and shareholding. There is no big excitement in it. There were 20500 shareholders a long time back and now there are 22750 shareholders. The management has almost 59.35% stake and a few quarters back FIS started holding close to 7% related and DIS Mutual Funds do not maintain any holding. We can understand from this data that it is not being done. So, we should also underline that the valuation of the stock has gone up in recent times, and the strong growth in recent quarters has not been seen in their numbers.
Laurus Labs Ltd. :-
Laureus Labs fell today. The main reason for that is that the New York Times reported that the funds related to the emergency food TB test and HIV drugs have not been released yet. Even the US court ruling has said that funds should be released, but the data is showing that no money has been released in terms of it And the impact of Laureus Labs, which is related to this data, is also being reported by multiple financial platforms today. Probably, the company may have brought some pressure today. But ultimately, the courts are saying that, but even Elon Musk is saying that the funding will not stop. Laureus Labs is related but it should not have an impact as usual but the funds have not been released yet and the updates that whatever aid is related to the US is not coming from it are that the money is not coming from it yet but the New York Times is saying that.
CDSL vs NSDL Update :-
CDSL should be talked about as NSDL related because NSDL IPO is coming in the coming times and they are making updates that they are going to launch an IPO of almost 3000 crores but their main competitor CDSL was listed in 2017 itself actually the first depository related to store securities in electronic format came to India first NSDL I think in 1996 then CDSL came in 1999 but starting starting with NSDL coming in the majority of shares NSDL is the one that says but slowly What CDSL did was to maintain some contracts with brokers and sort out any issues related to them. Even Nitin Kamath is talking about it. Till 2016, there was no big change in CDSL NSDL related but why did we shift to CDSL? They appointed a local representative, Harisha garu. In Bangalore, many brokers, new brokers, all the brokers also looked at CDSL. Due to this, all the brokers are looking at CDSL related and it is seen that there is a lot of market share gain there. Updates are being made. Ultimately, the first company to start the entire process, NSDL, is also going to come into the market as an IPO. Let's wait and see at what valuation they are going to come and what kind of gains CDSL has delivered to investors since listing. But one point you need to understand is that now that NSDL is coming, they are asking for the same valuation as CDSL at this point. Since CDSL has increased so much since its arrival, they are also thinking that it will increase so much. We should also remember the logic that they will start their journey with the current valuation journey of CDSL.
Lupin Ltd. :-
They have an inspection related to their Somerset facility in New Jersey from January 27 to 31 by the US FD. The inspection was successfully completed and they have received a report without any issues. This is a good thing.
Vedanta Ltd. :-
Friends, this is a very important update related to Vedanta. If anyone is holding a stock, please pay attention to this carefully. For each stock, those who have an additional stock will get four stocks out of the four companies that they are demerging. In total, four more stocks, one stock each, one company each, are going to become five companies. The shareholders and creditors have also given their approval for the demerger plan. If you want to understand, I am putting the data on the screen for you. Please take a look carefully. Vedanta Limited, which is currently related to Vedanta, will remain Vedanta Limited, while aluminum, which is present in Vedanta, will become a separate business. Oil and gas will become a separate business. Power will become a separate business. Vedanta Steel and Ferrous Materials will become another separate business. Vedanta Limited will have their zinc business. Like, they are holding 63% of water in Hindustan Zinc, that will be with Vedanta. So if there is a demerger like this, will there be five companies? In these five companies, I am mainly looking at where the value is, that is, Vedanta Limited will remain good, Vedanta Aluminum will also be good, and Vedanta Power will also have a good value related to it. What happens here is that these four companies, two, three, four, five, these four are now all included in one Vedanta, so the market takes the same valuation for all of them, but when they are separated, due to the different valuations coming and being added, there is a possibility of better valuations than the current one after demerger, so the managements are doing demerger, so what Vedanta takes as a related valuation market current, there is a possibility of better valuation after dividing them, so when you look at the data of their current relatedness, that is, there are other companies in this current segment, there are other companies in aluminum, there are other companies in oil and gas, there are other companies in power, their respective valuations are attained after demerger, so usually these are the promoters of demergers. They do it with opinion, shareholders should unlock value, but let's see what kind of market cap Vedanta has after demerger, what kind of market cap these five companies will achieve after demerger, let's try to talk about it. For the reference, I am saying that Vedanta, which consists of these five companies, is in the market at a valuation of 163 thousand crores. Let's wait and see, after the demerger, how much valuation the five companies will have together, how much market capital the five companies will have, let's also talk about it. After the demerger is complete, this was announced in September 2023. From there, the demerger was approved by NSC, BSC and now all the shareholders and creditors. If these are divided, demerged and listed in the market in the coming times.
ICICI Nifty Stocks Report :-
see the valuations of the next ICICI Direct companies as Nifty related and which companies will grow in Nifty. They shared some very interesting data. Nifty's EPS has grown at what growth rate since last 20 years. I mean, if it grows at such a growth rate in the coming times, EPS will go from the present 1000 to 1300. If it goes like that, EPS will be at 1300 and PE will be at 21. Where should Nifty be? 1300 * 21 because PE = Stock Price / EPS. So, Stock Price = PE * EPS. If EPS is at PE 21, then EPS will be 21 * 1300. Nifty should almost go to 27300 and FI 270. That point plus Sensex will go to 90000. According to their opinion, the banking industry is going to lead. In that, their topic is Bank of Baroda. In the IT space, their topic is Persistence Systems. Oil and Gas. The space is also going to improve and the FMCG space is also going to grow strongly. They are looking at Tata Consumer Products in terms of the auto industry, Lumax Auto Metal in terms of the space, Jindal Steel and Power and Capital Goods in terms of Vatech Wabag Pharma in terms of Piramal Pharma Cement in terms of JK Cement and Titan Company in terms of consumer discretionary. They are saying that they are mainly looking at the companies and are of the opinion that there will be a slow and steady growth in the markets in the coming times.
ACE Ltd. :-
They have got a contract worth 420 crores from the Ministry of Defense and as part of this, they will provide 1121 rough terrain forklift trucks to the defense people. Because there are logistics needs in defense too, these forklift trucks will be used for that. Regarding the defense people There are also large goods that are lifted with these and placed in various places. These trucks are also used to carry and go. Related to this, they are telling the exchanges that they have got this order.
Adani Renewables Ltd. :-
we should talk about Adani Renewables. I mean, we should talk about Adani Green Energy. They have commissioned a 250 MW solar project. That means they have started producing power from there. In Rajasthan, this is usually updated when the project starts. And along with that, when the project is completed and the business starts, they also update it. So, when power is being generated from here and there, these updates will be useful for us to include that business in the numbers.
RVNL Ltd. :-
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) has got an EPC contract from South Western Railway. They have got an order related to 25 kV OH and PSI systems. Updating, this will be the electrification of railways, in terms of which the value of the entire project is mentioned as 156 crores.
Easy Trip Planners Ltd. :-
The number of people who watch Korean web series and Korean movies is increasing in our India. It seems that Easy My Trip is also trying to increase tourism related to Korea. Easy My Trip is partnering with the Korean Tourism Organization to make Korea a top travel destination for Indian tourists. What does the partner do? They prepare itineraries, what can be seen there, must-visit attractions, essential travel insights, etc. They will provide data related to all this and encourage Indian tourists to go to Korea. Due to this, Easy My Trip will also increase business. It seems that they are entering into this partnership with the intention of making it a partnership.
PhonePe IPO Update :-
Phone Pay They are also trying to come in as an IPO. Quick Paytm has already entered the market. If they are also trying to enter the market, it will be seen that their revenue year on year comparison in recent fi24 is 5064 crores, which is a 74% increase. If compared to fi23, but the company is still in net loss, they are in loss of close to 1996 crores. But the loss will be significantly narrowed. UPI is the market leader. Almost 4767% UPI market share. Let's wait and see. At what valuation will they come in?
CanFin Homes Ltd. :-
Confin Homes is saying that they are going to spend 297 crores for the next seven years to improve core business solutions related to tie-up with IBM India.
Jyoti Structures Ltd. :-
Jyoti Structures should be talked about. Power
Grid. Relatedly, they have received an order worth Rs 741 crore for 800 kv high
voltage direct current related HVDC project related to them. This is the total
orders in hand that they are maintaining. Jyoti Structures is saying that
Religare Enterprises Ltd. :-
this Religare Enterprises drama seems to have
come to an end. Finally, it seems that the Burman family is taking control of
Religare Enterprises. It seems that they are acquiring control of Religare
Enterprises Limited. Therefore, they are declaring them as promoters and
announcing their names to the regulators and shareholders and saying that we
will run the company well. The Verma family and the Burman group are making
updates. Probably, this is why the company has increased by close to 15% today.
Stay safe, stay informed, and invest wisely!
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