Stock Market Analysis 19 Feb 25

Stock Market Analysis 19 Feb 25 : Performance of Sensex, Nifty, and Small-Mid Caps

Stock Market Analysis 19 Feb 25

Today Evening Sensex fell 28 points and closed at 75939 while Nifty fell 12 points and closed at 22933. Meanwhile, Yes Bank Nifty gained 483 points and closed at 49570.

Stock Market Analysis 18 Feb 25

Market Analysis:

Let’s talk about the hero of the day. Small-cap rose by 2.3%, mid-cap surged by 1.5% strongly. Today, the main reason for Nifty and Sensex being in the red is some sliding in pharma and IT-related stocks, which indicates there is some pressure. However, mid and small caps remained one-directional, and today we witnessed a strong opening and closing. There are comments from Trump related to pharma that we will discuss. On the other hand, in IT-related stocks, Gemini's Q4 results have come out. The guidance provided regarding discretionary spending and revenue forecasts for 2025 is likely causing some weakness in the IT space. But CS’s opinion is that CAB Gemini has higher exposure in the European UK region, so they may have made such statements. However, regarding the Indian IT sector, companies like TCS, Infosys, HCL, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra are also making statements indicating a positive outlook on recovery with strong opinions. So, there may be a short-term impact on the Indian IT sector, but in the long term, our IT sector remains in good shape. CLS's opinion is that when markets are down recently, I always buy small caps. I’ve never said this is a good opportunity to invest in related terms, but recently, as the market approaches important support levels, those who wish to invest can do so to some extent. The primary reason we’re discussing this is that after exhausting selling, both technically and fundamentally, there is an opportunity at these levels. I’m not saying it has increased today. Try to listen to this logic until the end. It’s because we are near important supports, but the main reason the market rose today is different. So, when we approach support levels and fall significantly, obviously this buying sentiment in the market is a relief move. But we should not finalize our thoughts based on this and assume everything has changed.

FIS Update:

In fact, in yesterday’s market blog, there was significant buying activity related to FIS. But I will check the bulk deal and block deal data at the end of the day and share if there is any interesting information. I mentioned that there was a block deal related to Airtel yesterday, where Goldman Sachs or GQG Partners in FIS were considering taking a stake in Airtel, so it seems the numbers related to FIS might have increased slightly yesterday. Therefore, if we offset yesterday’s number with the Airtel block deal, it is definitely not very positive for FIS. But what I want to conclude is that if FIS money was invested, was it invested in a block deal? Was it in the real market or open market? Leaving aside whether it was invested in a company related to the Indian equity market, was it invested in an Indian company? If it’s negative, then first of all, we have lost the logic of looking at it positively. That is due to the Airtel block deal. But let’s wait. The data coming in today is neutral, but for those who are somewhat positive, the market is near these important support levels, not just in terms of small caps but even in terms of Nifty. Since we are near important supports, we can expect some of the selling that has been going on in the past to stop. Let’s wait. If this is true, Trump will impose a 25% tariff on autos. Where is the statement that he will impose tariffs related to semiconductors in April? Let’s discuss this in the news topic because it is crucial here that India's name is also mentioned. An article was officially published on the White House website. I will explain this in today’s news topic. So, what impact will it have on which stocks? What effect will it have on pharma stocks? What impact will it have on auto stocks? Observe carefully in today’s news topic. So, Trump is openly saying he will impose tariffs like this; is he also mentioning India’s name? And if the Indian markets are negative, friends, how many times do markets get scared related to this tariff? Markets are already scared, aren’t they? Markets are afraid related to tariffs. Okay, so really, if Trump imposes tariffs like this, who will bear the final impact? US citizens there will have to spend more money, then inflation will increase. If inflation increases, it will raise the dollar index or bond yields there, right? So, if you think there will definitely be more tariffs here, why is the dollar index still around 107? Presently, bond yield is also around 4.5 for the US. So, I think the uncertainty related to this tariff has already been reflected in the market, and what he is scaring people about is that companies will go to them and put pressure on manufacturing facilities in the US. But the market is showing that tariffs will be imposed on a large scale. Even after he makes these statements, neither bond deals nor the dollar index are reacting. Whether we should really be afraid of these threats or not, global macro indicators are not responding to them. One thing is true. No one has seen the future. You haven’t seen it. I haven’t seen it. No one has seen it. But the statements he has made are genuinely scaring the market. If bond deals are already at 4.7, 4.8, 4.9, then the current bond deals are also at 4.6 at this point in time. The dollar index is near 107. Crude oil is near $76 per barrel. In total, like a green ship in a red ocean, FIS is constantly selling. After yesterday’s Airtel block deal, is it a blessing? They appeared to be buyers, but if it continues further, it is definitely an interesting parameter that we should understand in the market because the only way to turn around this entire environment is for their selling to stop. They don’t need to buy. They have approached the present important support, so let’s stop selling. No, this is also for me, isn’t it the same as expansive valuation support for the market? It was taken to another support and stopped there. Do you still want to push the market to the downside? This is related to FIS. How is the buying and selling activity? If we observe the data for three or four consecutive days in the coming days, we will know that yesterday was a holiday for the US markets, so I said don’t take selling into consideration. Yesterday, I said, “Don’t take selling into consideration.” It was a happy thing, but Airtel cannot be considered due to a block deal. Today is proper. So, we can take the data from today into consideration. So, wait and see. I will update you as soon as that data comes. If I am unable to include it in the blog, then note it in the comment section. I will also provide that data in the first or second comment.

If this is the case, it is clear that the US is moving forward together with Russia regarding the Ukraine deal. If this is true, it will be seen that Ukraine is moving forward by setting aside its policies and somehow making a peace deal. Ultimately, if Ukrainians do not receive support from the US, it will be difficult. Therefore, Ukrainians will definitely move forward alongside the US. So, this entire Russia-Ukraine topic is also likely to conclude in the coming times. This will also stabilize prices related to crude oil. But the interesting fact is the selling of FIS yesterday in this cash market. It has changed, but the same levels are being maintained in the futures market. Currently, FIS maintains 84% net shorts in the Indian equity markets. Friends, as usual, I would like to tell you in the thumbnails not to fall into the trap of the market that has increased today. This is the main reason for using wording that after the market has fallen so much, it is right to think that the market will immediately go up again and return to where it fell. It is incorrect to jump into expectations and assume it won’t fall again. I said when should we think about it? If we see buying in FIS for a few consecutive days, then we can take that impact seriously. Otherwise, what will happen is that we will fall again with wrong expectations, and these supports will break. This time, the frustration that newbies feel, the frustration beginners experience, stems from doing the wrong things. So, even if the market rises, confirmations have been ongoing for us since forever. Until we hear that this selling has stopped, we should not start thinking positively immediately. But one thing is that the market is sure there is important support in terms of small caps and Nifty. The idea is to break these and take the market down. If FIS continues to sell strongly in the coming times, except for their selling, their selling is decreasing here. There is a possibility that the markets coming in positively will stabilize here because neither these bond deals nor the dollar index nor any of these have reacted to Trump’s statements. The global markets are a bit weak today. The European markets and global markets have remained strong recently, and we are also near important support. So, let’s hope that FIS’s selling will be as intense as it was recently.

FID Data Update and the Impact of Tariffs on Global Markets: A Comprehensive Analysis

FID Data Update: An Analysis of Ongoing Sell-Offs in the Market

In today’s FID (Foreign Institutional Investors) data update, we observed a growing trend of sell-offs. Currently, the sell-side figure has reached ₹1881 crore. While this number isn’t particularly large, if we look at the consistent selling in recent times, it’s clear that the average sell-off has been around ₹3500 crore. This week alone, we’ve seen sell-offs of ₹4500 crore, ₹5000 crore, ₹2800 crore, ₹4000 crore, and ₹3900 crore. Now, after a sell-off of ₹1800 crore, there is a possibility of another ₹1000 crore in selling. After that, the market could move towards neutral or positive territory.

Today’s data isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. It’s important to see what happens in the coming days. If the market starts showing signs of buying, it would be better to gain confidence only after confirmation. However, if another ₹3000-4000 crore in selling occurs, the market may fall again.

Advice for New Investors:

If you’re a new investor, don’t rush into decisions based on hopes of market recovery. Instead, observe the next 3-4 days of selling and then build hope. Facing disappointment in the market can be challenging, but this is the best time to remain patient.

Donald Trump’s 25% Tariff Announcement: Impact on India and Global Markets

Donald Trump recently made a significant announcement. He stated that he will impose a 25% tariff on auto, pharma, and semiconductor-related goods. These tariffs will apply to countries that do not manufacture their products in the U.S. This move is aimed at pressuring companies to establish production facilities in America.

Impact of Tariffs:

This announcement could create volatility in global markets. Particularly, pharma, auto, and semiconductor companies will be heavily affected. For instance, if companies like Hyundai or Volkswagen face a 25% tariff, the burden will ultimately fall on consumers. This is because companies will increase their prices to pass on the tariff burden to consumers.

Impact on India:

Trump once again pointed towards India. He mentioned that India imposes import duties of up to 100%. Elon Musk also commented on this, stating that if Tesla sets up a factory in India, these duties might decrease. However, so far, India hasn’t reduced these tariffs, which seems unfair. Narendra Modi has also commented on this issue, stating that whatever tariffs America imposes on India, India will reciprocate. If America imposes a 100% tariff, India will do the same.

Impact on Pharma Companies:

This announcement will have the biggest impact on pharmaceutical companies. Companies like Natco Pharma, Gland Pharma, Granules, and Unichem Labs, which earn significant revenue from the U.S., will be most affected. If a 10% tariff is imposed, it will significantly impact their EPS (Earnings Per Share) and profitability.

Future of CDMO Companies: New Growth Opportunities in India

CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations) companies are currently playing a crucial role. Due to geopolitical tensions, especially the shift of business from China to India, Indian CDMO companies are seeing excellent growth opportunities.

Top CDMO Companies:

1. Divi's Lab
2. Syngene
3. Blue Z Healthcare
4. Suven Life Sciences

These companies have successfully attracted the attention of global pharma giants. Expectations for their top-line growth are very high. In a 100-page report, McWire has provided a detailed analysis of the growth potential of these companies. To read this report, click on the link provided below.

Trump’s Comments on Financial Aid: The Impact of $21 Million on India

Trump has also raised questions about the $21 million in financial aid given to India. He stated that India has enough money and doesn’t need America to spend on its behalf. This comment could pose a new challenge for India.

Business Margins and the Future of the Stock Market: An In-Depth Analysis

Friends, today we are going to discuss some interesting data shared by those who believe that most sectors have reached their peak margins. This means that if a sector’s margins are at their peak, future growth could slow down. This is an important point because it affects not only companies but also investors.

What Are Margins and How Do They Work?

Margins refer to how much profit a company is making. If margins are at their peak, it indicates that the company has successfully controlled its production costs. However, when margins reach their peak, it becomes difficult to increase them further. This also impacts the stock market. If a company’s margins are at their peak, the likelihood of its stock price increasing diminishes.

Which Sectors Are at Peak Margins?

According to the data, sectors like FMCG, pharma, auto, industrials, paints, consumer services, and energy have reached their peak margins. On the other hand, sectors like QSR, IT, cement, chemicals, metals, and mining still have the potential for margin expansion. This means these sectors may see better earnings in the future.

SEBI’s New Rules: Big Changes for Investor Protection

SEBI has recently implemented some significant rules. One major change is that demat and trading accounts will now be linked to mobile numbers. This means if your mobile number changes, you’ll need to re-verify your account. This change aims to enhance investor security.

Additionally, SEBI plans to introduce biometric authentication. This means you might need to scan your fingerprint or face to log into your account. This ensures that only you can access your account.

The Future of AI: Which Jobs Will Change?

The World Economic Forum has released a report indicating which jobs AI might replace in the future. According to the report, roles like data entry, junior developers, and data analysts could be replaced by AI. However, jobs like teaching, electricians, and doctors are unlikely to be replaced because they involve one-on-one interactions.

Promoter Buying Deepak Nitrite Ltd. Shares :-

There is fresh information regarding Deepak Nitrite Ltd. The promoter of this company, Mehta, has purchased 27,100 shares. If you look at the trend, this investment is worth around ₹5 crore. Prior to this, he had purchased 30,700 shares worth approximately ₹5.80 crore. Before that, he had bought 1.46 lakh shares. If you invest in this company at a share price of around ₹2500, this trend will be clearly visible. The promoter is consistently purchasing shares in this company over time.

BCL Industries Ltd. Secures a Major Order :-

The promoter group of BCL Industries Ltd. has secured an order worth ₹134.87 crore from Swaksha Digital and oil marketing companies like BPCL, HPCL, and IOC. Under this contract, the company will supply 23,054 KL of ethanol in the near future. This significant deal is being updated in the stock exchanges.

JBM Auto Ltd. Receives Order for Electric Buses :-

JBM Auto Ltd.'s unit, JBM Eco Life, has received an order for 1,021 electric buses under the EME Bus Service Scheme. The total value of this order is estimated at ₹5,500 crore. The company has confirmed that these buses will be supplied in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Haryana.

Ashok Leyland Ltd. Secures a Diesel Bus Order :-

Ashok Leyland Ltd. has won a ₹297.85 crore order. However, this order is not for electric vehicles but for BS6 diesel buses. The buses under this deal will be supplied to Tamil Nadu State Transport Corporation (TNSTC).

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd. Wins Railway Order :-

Oriental Rail Infrastructure Ltd., a small-cap company, has secured an order worth ₹3 crore from Rail Coach Factory (RCF).

Apollo Micro Systems Ltd. Secures Defense Orders :-

Apollo Micro Systems Ltd., a company with a market capitalization of ₹1,200 crore, has announced that it has secured a ₹12.7 crore defense contract from a private company and another order worth ₹5.97 crore from the Ministry of Defense. In total, the company has secured ₹18 crore in new orders.

Netweb Technologies Ltd. Launches AI Technology :-

Netweb Technologies Ltd. has launched an AI-enabled technology that efficiently manages resources in multi-vendor environments. This technology optimizes GPU management and will be deployed in enterprise and cloud sectors for maximizing artificial intelligence and HPC workloads.

Tata Steel Ltd. Gets Green Signal in the UK :-

Tata Steel Ltd. has received approval from the UK government for an electric arc furnace project. Under this plan, a new unit will be set up to promote sustainable steel manufacturing.

Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd. Expands Its Business :-

Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd. is expanding its operations and is set to launch a new property in Bhopal. The company has updated that this new hotel will open by FY 2027.

RVNL Ltd. Wins ₹554 Crore Project :-

RVNL, in collaboration with Ruthvik Properties Pvt. Ltd., has won a ₹554 crore project. In this joint venture, RVNL holds a 51% stake, while Ruthvik Properties has a 49% stake. This project will focus on developing modern transit infrastructure in Bangalore.

Piramal Pharma Ltd. Undergoes FDA Inspection :-

The US FDA inspected Piramal Pharma Ltd.’s manufacturing facility in Maharashtra between February 11-17. The report highlighted six observations, but these are related to minor procedural improvements. The company has assured that these issues will be resolved soon.

Morepen Laboratories Ltd. Launches a New Pharma Subsidiary :-

Morepen Laboratories Ltd. has established a new pharma subsidiary, Quick Mets Pvt. Ltd. This will be a digital pharmacy where customers can upload prescriptions online and order medicines.

Nava Limited Announces Share Buyback :-

Nava Limited, formerly known as Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd., operates in ferro alloys, energy, mining, and agribusiness across India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. The company has announced a buyback of 72 lakh shares worth ₹360 crore at ₹500 per share.

• The buyback will be conducted through the tender route
• Promoters will not participate
• Record date: February 28

This represents 9.7% of the company’s total equity held exclusively by public shareholders.

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