Stock Market Analysis 30 Jan 25 : What’s Driving the Market Today?
Stock Market Analysis 30 Jan 25
Sensex Gained 227 Points and Closed at 76,759 While Nifty Gained 86 Points and Closed at 23,249; Yes Bank Nifty Gained 146 Points and Closed at 49,312
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Update
Let’s start with the Fed. I told you yesterday that there would be a Fed meeting after the market closed. No decision was made regarding an interest rate cut or hike. The market expected that the Fed would maintain the status quo, and that’s exactly what happened.
However, some interesting statements came out. Did Donald Trump try to persuade the Fed to cut interest rates? No, Fed officials clarified that Trump had not contacted them. They stated that every time they meet, the data shows that inflation is decreasing, but this time, there was no such clear trend.
If the market takes this negatively, it’s not our concern. The Fed’s priority is to stabilize the market and control inflation. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is positive or job data is weak, we will immediately cut interest rates.
The Fed made it clear that they will not be influenced by external pressure. That’s why, even though inflation data has been declining for the past few months, they have kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Tax and Trade Policy Update
Regarding taxes, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that the U.S. will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. These tariffs will take effect from February 1st, but if both countries comply with U.S. border demands, the tariffs will not be enforced.
This feels like a bargaining tactic—“If you accept our conditions, you will be exempted from tariffs.” There are no new updates regarding China, but indications suggest that the U.S. is preparing to impose new tariffs on China as well.
Global Market Update
If we look at global markets, earnings reports from major tech giants had mixed results:
- Microsoft’s earnings were disappointing, leading to a 5% drop in its stock.
- Tesla’s stock rose by 4%.
- Meta (Facebook’s parent company) saw a 2% increase in its stock.
From today, lot sizes for derivative trading are being changed:
- Bank Nifty’s lot size is being adjusted from 15 to 30.
- Nifty’s lot size is changing from 25 to 75.
Currently, FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) are holding 75% short positions in the market, meaning they are consistently selling in the cash market.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Update
- FIIs have sold nearly ₹81,000 crore in January alone.
- Since October, total FII selling has exceeded ₹2.5 lakh crore.
- The Fed event is over, and now the focus is on tariff policies and earnings from U.S. mega-cap companies.
- Some important updates are coming from the government, especially regarding MSMEs, data centers, technology, chips, and semiconductors.
Trump and Tariff Policy: Impact on India?
Trump’s policies could have significant implications for India. He stated that he would impose tariffs on countries harming the U.S., specifically naming China, India, and Brazil.
Trump believes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make the right decisions to address the issue of illegal immigrants, particularly in India. However, if that doesn’t happen, Trump has clearly stated that he will impose tariffs on India as well.
Previously, Trump’s statements about India were more positive, but his recent remarks indicate a shift. Many U.S. media platforms are now including India among the “high-tariff countries” that harm the U.S. economy.
If the U.S. imposes tariffs on India, the pharma industry, semiconductors, steel, and technology companies will be the most affected. These new taxes could impact Indian exports and reduce profitability for many companies.
Will the Indian Market Be Affected?
If tariffs increase, it will have a direct impact on Indian markets. However, some sectors, such as IT, may not be affected significantly. But pharma and the semiconductor industry could face major challenges.
India imports steel from other countries, so U.S. policies won’t directly impact the Indian steel industry. However, if new tariffs are imposed on the pharma sector, Indian exports will take a hit.
Upcoming Major Events That Could Impact the Market:
- Union Budget on February 1st – The market may see high volatility on this day. Investors should be cautious and, if possible, avoid trading for at least two days after the budget.
- RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting on February 7th – This meeting could bring major decisions on interest rates and inflation policies.
- Potential Decisions from Trump in February – If the U.S. imposes tariffs on India, it could be a major setback for the market.
FII/FPI and DII Update :-
Just now, the FIDI data has been updated. Even today, it stands at ₹4,582 crores. This is such continuous selling that probably, after seeing this selling, the budget this time will support the markets in a suitable manner. But if any decision is made, it means that such a large amount of money will be withdrawn from the market. If it tries to chase the market, if it makes a big policy announcement, it will have a good impact. Therefore, in recent days, I have been talking about the budget every time because it was a big hope. In terms of markets, I think that hope is also gone. Now, we are only talking about earnings. We will depend on earnings and the global macro picture, but the budget is the only thing that can bring any sudden policies, so let’s hope that the selling of FIIs does not stop. There is fuel in the Indian markets that will grow strongly. I hope the budget will be strong this time, even if it is just to maintain market sentiment.
SEBI Update :-
Friends, after the market closed yesterday, on January 29, SEBI released a circular stating that financial influencers (Finfluencers) are creating blog content related to stock market securities. This seems to be an important circular from their perspective. This will impact all financial influencers who create stock market-related blogs, and it will also affect our channel. The main point in this circular is how they differentiate between recommendations or advice and education. Some channels only provide education. They say, "Buy this, sell this," "We bought this and made this much profit," "Because of this, this happened." How do they differentiate such people? SEBI states that if any person shows market price data that is more than three months old, it will be considered educational. However, if it is recent data within three months, it will be considered a recommendation or advice.
We have already been showing six months of data on our channel, so in the coming times, we want to discuss these things and gain clarity on the related procedures before educating ourselves. For example, how much can we talk about a company's business? If we find something good in a business, how much can we talk about its positive aspects, and how much should we avoid? We also need clarity on this. We are in touch with some legal experts regarding this, and we will try to bring content with full details about what information we can share and what we cannot.
India AI Mission Update :-
I mentioned in market analysis that Ashwini Vaishnaw is making very interesting comments on generative AI models and deep search. He has stated that India is developing its own generative AI model, which will be rolled out in the next 6–8 months. Just like ChatGPT in the US and Deep Search in China, India will also have a generative AI model. It is very exciting that it will be equipped with 18,690 GPUs, but its training is currently being conducted on just 2,000 GPUs.
In the coming times, all its developments will be carried out under the "India AI" umbrella. This could be a significant step in AI development in India.
MSME Update :-
After the market closed yesterday, the central government announced loans of up to ₹100 crores for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) under the Credit Guarantee Scheme. If approved, the data will soon be visible. If a company comes forward to purchase machinery to establish a plant, the government will provide close to 60% guarantee coverage.
Banks and other lenders can provide loans of up to ₹100 crores based on this 60% government guarantee. This loan can be repaid over eight years, and if repayment is not possible, there will be a moratorium of two years. This facility will be applicable for loans up to ₹50 crores. This move signals strong support for the MSME sector, and similar initiatives can be expected in this budget.
Whirlpool of India Ltd. :-
Anyone investing in the stock market should pay close attention to this. Due to the actions of the promoters, minority shareholders are learning a big lesson about how they can get into trouble and how valuations are impacted.
It is important to understand that "Whirlpool of India" does not necessarily mean that it is entirely an Indian company. In reality, it is a multinational company (MNC) based in the USA. It can do business in India, but its core control remains in the US.
Recently, the stock was trading at a P/E ratio of 45x in the market, while its parent company in the US was trading at only 9.5x. In February, promoters sold 24.5% of their 75% stake at ₹1,280 per share. After this, the stock rose by almost 100%. However, when they announced that they would reduce their remaining 51% stake to 20%, the stock experienced a significant drop.
This means that now, any external investor could acquire an 80% stake in Whirlpool of India and gain complete control over the company. This increases the possibility of a hostile takeover. The promoters are also saying that they are gradually selling off their business in India to reduce the debt of the US-based parent company. This statement serves as a warning to any investor.
This is the main reason behind today's significant drop in Whirlpool of India's stock price.
Laurus Labs Ltd.:
The main reason for the stock's rise today is related to the update I mentioned in yesterday's blog. I would like to give an important update to Laurus Labs investors. Previously, decisions made by the US government regarding HIV medicines were withdrawn. Now, only HIV medications have received a green signal from the US Secretary of State, which is good news for Laurus Labs investors. I mentioned this in yesterday's blog. Is it the same? Just a few hours ago, news platforms like Money Control, Business Standard, and others published the update. Friends, why has the stock increased? Whenever you invest in a company, any global event related to it will have an immediate impact. So, think about it. You should follow such updates directly before they reach news platforms because they usually report only after the stock has increased. But, if you are invested in a stock, is there any event happening right now related to it? If you check Laurus Labs, there are constant updates related to their funding in the HIV/AIDS program. Just google “US HIV US AIDS,” and you’ll see the news. Whether you search for Trump or not, you’ll get the updates regularly. So, if there are any changes—positive or negative—it will immediately benefit you. Therefore, most of these updates come after market hours, but I will also post them in news blogs. Laurus Labs' numbers have been good recently, but the only concern is the expensive valuation. But the numbers are strong, and whatever concerns you had about the company, those issues have been addressed.
Axis Cades Ltd.:
We also need to discuss Axis Cades. Axis Cades has appointed Nick Santhanam as an advisor to their Electronics Semiconductors and AI division. If you look at his history, he has many years of experience in the global semiconductor and industrial sectors. Let's see how his appointment impacts the growth of this division in the future.
Solar Industries India Ltd.:
Now, let’s talk about Solar Industries. Solar Industries has secured a ₹10,000 crore Vinaka Rocket deal from the Ministry of Defense. Updates show that the entire deal has gone to them, with other companies involved, such as Solar Industries and Munitions India. Reports indicate that the two companies are receiving orders together. We might think of them as a renewable energy company due to the name "Solar," but they are actually leading explosives and ammunition manufacturers. They also use these explosives in mines. So, a big order like this will show up in the data.
Black Box Ltd.:
Black Box is highlighting its business, especially with recent mentions by Anantharaju and Netweb Technologies. Data center stocks have been falling recently. But Black Box emphasizes its presence in over 35 countries, dealing in networking, cybersecurity, data centers, and digital solutions. Recently, they received big orders: a ₹250 crore hyperscale-related order, a ₹100 crore cybersecurity deal, and a ₹45 crore order from a global telecom company. They are growing as a technology-driven digital infrastructure company, building the next-generation digital infrastructure. Updates suggest they will play a prominent role in this field.
Bajaj Finance Ltd.:
The numbers from Bajaj Finance are quite interesting. They are beating market expectations in many segments but lagging behind in a few. They delivered strong net interest income and profit after tax, but their asset quality is somewhat weak, both gross and net non-performing assets. Asset quality has improved, but it remains the lowest in the industry, though still the best in the sector. Why has the stock increased so much? The commentary suggests that the worst is behind them, and there are good days ahead. Their guidance indicates a 23%-25% profit growth in FY26, and they aim to maintain their current growth rate. Most importantly, the appointment of Rajiv Jain has impressed analysts, and Bajaj Finance continues to perform well in Q4 FY25.
Hitachi Energy Ltd.:
The main reason for Hitachi Energy's rise today is their strong margin performance. Revenue growth isn't significant compared to the previous quarter, but margins have improved significantly, doubling their profit. Their revenue increased from ₹1553 crore to ₹1620 crore, but the key factor is the sharp improvement in margins. Even after accounting for a one-time forex gain of ₹52 crore, the numbers are beating expectations. Additionally, their order book has reached ₹11,594 crore, the highest ever for Hitachi in a single quarter. Overall, Hitachi's numbers are very strong.
WAAREE Energies Ltd.:
The company’s performance is strong. In both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons, they are surpassing expectations in terms of revenue, margins, profitability, and overall order book. The current order book stands close to 26.5 GW, worth approximately ₹50,000 crore. The key highlight is that they are improving even in the important margin segment. Additionally, they launched a 16 GW solar module line in the US, which has already started contributing to their business. Everything else in their energy sector is performing well.
MOShip Technologies Ltd.:
The company has posted its numbers, and I am displaying them on your screen. Their revenue and profit margins are slightly better than market expectations. They are delivering good results without any issues. However, despite this strong performance, their current valuation is somewhat expensive.
Bharat Electronics Ltd.:
The numbers for this company are also on your screen. Revenues have increased by 39%, and margins, which used to be around 20-26%, are now approaching 29%. Operating profit has grown by 56%, and net profit is up by 50-52%. The company has a strong order book, with nearly ₹71,000 crore worth of orders. Bharat Electronics also delivered strong results.
Deep Industries Ltd.:
This company operates in the oil and gas sector. When you look at both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth, you can see that the company has shown growth in terms of revenue, margins, and profitability, without any disappointments. Deep Industries is performing well.
Strides Pharma Ltd.:
The numbers here are good too. Revenues have grown by 15%, and operating profit has grown by 47%, which is particularly important. The key highlight is the improvement in margins, which used to be around 14% and are now at 18%. They have posted a profit of ₹90 crore this time, compared to a loss of ₹6.8 crore last time. Strides Pharma is showing solid growth.
Voltas Ltd. and Blue Star Ltd.:
Comparing these two companies, Blue Star’s revenues grew by around 25% year-on-year, while Voltas saw a growth of 18%. The key factor that stands out is the margin performance. Blue Star exceeded expectations in terms of margins, while Voltas saw a decline in margins, which impacted their bottom line profitability. The reason for Voltas' decline in margins is primarily due to their unitary cooling products (UCP), whereas Blue Star performed better in this segment. Voltas’ margins in this segment decreased by nearly 200-244 basis points, while Blue Star saw an improvement of 8.1%, showing strong margins. So, although the top-line growth is similar for both, Blue Star was able to maintain good margins, while Voltas struggled to do so. It seems that Voltas is trying to keep prices lower to boost sales, but it hasn’t helped their margins.
ETF (Exchange Traded Fund):
This is an important update for those investing in ETFs. I forgot to mention this in the last blog. Typically, you can invest in mutual funds via SIP, which means that money is withdrawn from your bank account on a regular basis, such as monthly. You may be investing in the money market, and for those who are interested in ETFs, please pay attention. This should have been mentioned in the last blog, but I missed it. If you look at Nifty Bees, which is an ETF related to Nifty, you can also do SIPs in ETFs like you do in mutual funds. For example, using a platform like Fires, you can set up SIPs for Nifty Bees. By selecting the SIP option, you can decide the quantity or amount you want to invest every month. You can also set step-up SIPs to increase the amount annually, for example, increasing your ₹1,000 investment by 10% each year. You can also choose the date for the deduction and the expiry condition if you want to stop the SIP after reaching a certain amount. This is a smart way to invest in ETFs.
If the broker you use doesn’t have this feature, and you are interested in doing SIPs in stocks or ETFs every month, it is a good option. There are no maintenance charges or AMC fees for setting up an account in the Fires app. However, normal charges apply for buying and selling. If you want to support the channel and open an account, consider going through Fires. Other broking apps might also have similar features, so check those out as well. Let me know if you have any such features in your app, and I will mention them in future blogs.
Lastly, I won’t be talking about Nifty support and resistance here, as I’ve shared the SEBI circular, which states that data should be taken from three months ago. Once I get more clarity on how to present support and resistance for stocks or indices, I’ll definitely discuss them. I hope you understand, and I will bring you updates on support and resistance soon.
हमारे समुदाय में शामिल हों और नवीनतम अपडेट्स, समाचार और जानकारी प्राप्त करें!
हमारे साथ जुड़कर आप नवीनतम समाचार, अपडेट्स और जानकारी प्राप्त कर सकते हैं जो आपके लिए महत्वपूर्ण हैं!
आइए और हमारे समुदाय का हिस्सा बनें!
No comments:
Post a Comment