Indian Stock Market 06 March 25 : आज के बाजार विश्लेषण
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| India Stock Market 06 March 25 |
Today Evening Sensex gained 610 points and closed at 74340 while Nifty gained 207 points and closed at 22545 where Yes Bank Nifty gained 138 points and closed at 48628.
Market Analysis :-
Well today also small caps gained strongly by close to 13% which was not so good in last two days at least today markets did not disappoint friends important topic you need to know RBI they are going to do liquidity infusion close to 190 thousand crores liquidity infusion at record level is going to come from RBI side you can see data on multiple financial platforms this is the only thing we can talk about separately but we can compare this with various defense pending and debt happening in Europe If you notice the ceiling, since the European Union was formed, the debt ceiling has never exceeded 3%, it has not exceeded 3% of their GDP, but for the first time, by changing the debt ceiling to 1%, that is, increasing it by another 1%, whatever defense-related spending is going to happen, the dollar index has been impacted. This dollar index, this dollar being weak, is the main reason why these metals have risen so much today. So, let's combine this RBI-related topic, this Europe-related topic, this dollar index-related topic, and our dollar- rupee, and put the whole thing in a proper structure. I will explain it to you in the first analysis topic in our news analysis topics.
Try to listen very carefully today. If we interconnect all of these globally, you can understand what kind of impact it will have on our markets. This will be explained to you after some time. You will hear in this same blog, but before that, an interesting warning appears from Trump. Hamas, immediately release those hostages you have. If they have already done something to them, then give them their bodies immediately. Otherwise, you are the end of your work. It seems that Hamas is giving a big warning, a last warning. And this is a very important meeting. We should focus on this very carefully because we have been seeing lately that geopolitical tensions have been heating up a bit.
At that point, the markets did not react negatively because before that, the markets reacted very negatively. And at the same point, these tariffs are related to uncertainty, so the tariffs that Trump is imposing are also related to Canada, Mexico, China. Some positive relief is coming, these geopolitical tensions have not impacted the market much and in the meantime Zelensky has also said that he is okay, I am going down, let's do the mineral deal, so coming to a compromise with the US will also be a bit cool. The present has created a scenario, hasn't it? There is no stress yet, but today in Brazil, there is a major meeting with major European leaders with Zelensky. Let's see what statements they make. And if you observe in parallel, defense-related spending activity will increase in Europe. And the statements made by the new government in Germany in the past are different from the statements made by us in the past. We cannot think that we have done more than what we have been spending, whether it is infrastructure or defense-related, but now Zelensky has taken a complete U-turn and is making these statements related to defense. This is the point at which European leaders All of them are meeting, on the one hand they are increasing the defense pending, on the other hand all the key meetings are being held with Zelensky.
Is this normal or is there a possibility of any strong statements coming from their side? So we should track this whole game of being related to Europe and the US and putting Zelensky in the middle for some time, at least for one to two weeks. I know that harsh statements are coming from the US side, but these have come from Europe and Zelensky's side recently. But again, Zelensky has clarified that he realized his mistake and that he should not have spoken like that. So, I don't expect anything. But the scenarios are currently running globally. I want to inform you and I should also say one more thing. Yesterday, our markets fell quite a bit recently and then rose.
In fact, small caps have recovered from recent losses. You see, it's up about 8%, while metals are up 10% from recent losses, and oil and gas are also up 8%. The updates coming from China related to metals growth are also negative for oil and gas related companies, which we talked about in yesterday's blog. Crude oil prices are also falling sharply. It is negative for oil exploration companies, but it is definitely positive for marketing companies, city gas distribution companies, and all these gas related companies. Their raw material costs are decreasing. So, we have strength in the oil and gas space as well.
So look, the metal space and oil and gas space are both up strong out of all sectors today, close to 2.4%. And another positive thing that came overnight is that there is news from Trump that he is backing off on the tariffs that have been related to auto companies for a month. Some auto companies related to Mexico and Canada Players are meeting him and after listening to their plea, Trump is making a statement that he is passing auto tariffs for one month. Obviously, it does not stop only with auto. The rest of them are also giving indirect signals that if they come and talk to me, I will pass it. These are not strict rules. Everyone should come to him and try to make promises to the US. It is directly seen from Trump that everyone should come to him and tell him what they will do to him. But if there is no clear intention to impose tariffs, then this is probably understood. For this reason too, today we may have seen some strength in the markets and all the global markets are also seen in some green. You should also observe the activity of FIS. Let's look at the last three sessions. We have seen nearly 4800 crore selling, 3400 crore selling, 2900 crore selling and in a decreasing manner.
It seems that but we have to see how it changes after reaching a certain point. We will not see a big difference until it is around 3000 crores. Even today, if it reaches 2200, 2000, 1500, or this number, at least there is another positive hope that if it goes in this decreasing manner, something is going to happen to us. But again, the expectations that the market will reduce their sell-off by selling 4400 crores, 5000 crores will be temporarily put aside. And the services PMI data for the US has been released. It is better than expected. In recent times, most of the data factors related to the economy are also bad. But this is better than expectations. And according to my best knowledge, after 1990, there has never been such a situation in Europe since 1990. The scenario has not developed that much. Bond deals related to Europe have increased by almost 30 basis points overnight. Bonds related to there appear to be so deep. Not just Europe. This similar scenario that you saw in the Asian space, the Asian markets, is maintained. Bond deals spike. Bond deals there have increased by close to 30 basis points. Europe-related.
So that's why I 'm saying that the scenario is Europe-related. After putting Zelensky in the middle and Trump's recent uncertainty comments, some new decisions have been made. Increasing defense-related spending will not happen if we remain calm. We must also be strong. Everyone must be one. All European leaders are organizing an important meeting together. Until now, we have never focused on Europe. But Europe-related is now the last one to Major updates in the days are coming from the European side. Now after hearing all this, many people are now afraid of this. Now should there be any tension about this? Friends, there are many events related. Let's say there are 10 events. I don't think that 10 events related will always go negative. Because everyone is a human being. If it goes negative, it will cause damage to them. So, except for a person who goes to the ego, no one wants to spend on defense-related things. They want to spend on growth-related things. For me, that time is gone. Now everyone is thinking about how their countries should grow economically. All the people should increase their per capita income. How should they come into growth? I think that leaders will focus on these because they have their own problems. But the US people have been in recent times. There is some pressure on the European side, but suddenly Europe is alert and there are basic discussions going on that we should be a little stronger. If you are tracking your opinions related to this, share them in the comment section.
It is Very Important Topic you have Must Read :-
Friends, what you are going to hear now is mostly data like this. This type of analysis is not available on financial platforms because geopolitical events, the relationship between our Indian rupee and the dollar, and the important announcement made by the RBI yesterday to close our markets, let's try to understand what kind of impact it will have on our markets. But out of all these, my most important and favorite topic is the Europeans taking The decision has a global impact. Related to this, I told you in the blog I made on March 4th in recent days that in the topic that is being mentioned as Stocks in the News, European stocks related to defense have increased by a huge amount. There has been a huge rally in defense stocks related to Europe. With Trump's behavior, whoever increases their defense pending and whoever says anything about us, we should be ready. If we spend on defense related at that time, it will not be enough. I fought a war and did not do it. But we should have all the equipment ready.
This mindset is related to the first time the European Union. Since the European Union was formed, you see that the dead ceiling is 3%, but for the first time, you can increase the dead ceiling by 1% above it. That is, if you want, you can increase the ceiling by 1%. If you want, you can change it by 1%. If defense related If we are spending and after this, the Germans are also using our death limits, they are also making statements that we are going to spend defense-related.
Due to this, again, there was a bus related to defense stocks and what happened with this? If the currency is related to Europe, the euro, then the spending will increase related to it. Automatically, this dollar-related impact is seen and the dollar index has fallen to the levels where the dollar index was before Trump came. In fact, with these measures taken by the RBI, the rupee should have weakened a little more, but the dollar is weakening, and the decisions taken by the European Union have weakened the dollar somewhat. However, our Indian rupee has not had a big impact. The rupee has weakened today, but it is correct, but it has not weakened in such a big way.
But one more thing should be remembered. Most of the export business in March-end Our conclusion is that the rupee is strengthening somewhat at those points. This is one point. Secondly, if you are observing in recent times, oil and crude oil are also weakening and dropping and dropping, and Brent crude has reached $70 per barrel. This should also be seen as good for our rupee. And with the developments taking place in Europe, if the dollar index is weakening further, it should also strengthen our rupee and impact the outflows of FIs. That is, if their outflows do not go out so much, our rupee will be strong. And I have been mentioning this in recent times.
Bond deals are also very strong in Asian markets. Bond deals have increased but bond deals related to the US are somewhat stable. And coming to RBI is an important decision. Friends, if this is the case, there is a 10 billion dollar USD INR buy sell swap auction, if you remember, I also mentioned it in the blog I made on February 28. You might think that this is one thing. It is 10 billion dollars. This is a total of 20 billion dollars related to USD INR buy sell swaps. RBI has taken a decision and through open market operations, it has also taken a decision to provide liquidity through open market operations of 50 thousand crores in two tranches, 50 thousand crores each time, a total of 1 lakh crores of government securities.
The decisions taken by RBI to provide liquidity through open market operations are also liquidity boost. The market will definitely take it positively with both hands. That is why the market has increased today. It means that RBI's liquidity measure will have an impact on the market in the coming months. In fact, banks are not going to grow hugely today, right? So, I am not saying this for the impact that happened today. Overall, recently, even when the market is falling, everyone talks about negatives obviously. When the market is falling, even if I say negatives, you will not question me. But what you need to know is that the positives are government-related, income tax-related, we will see green shoots in the economy in the coming times. The changes made in income tax-related will be visible. And the most important thing is that the RBI has talked about liquidity measures, which are clear to us. That too is a possibility to take the system to better growth. We have discussed these two main topics related to these main topics and further, these steps that the RBI is taking. And here I should also say one more thing.
Now, after saying all this, let's say tomorrow, a 200 Let's say the market fell by 100 points. They said that the market fell. So don't think that the market is a scam. If the markets are reacting to global markets and global news factors or temporary FIS selling, it is a short-term event. But in the baseline, we see positive things that the markets are developing better. I am trying to highlight them to you. Bonds have cooled off. The dollar dex has cooled off. Imported crude oil, which is very important for us, has also cooled off. With the equations happening in Europe, particularly the death ceiling related changes, defense related spending, the dollar has been impacted. That too is good for our Indian rupee.
And whatever RBI is doing, even if it is not rupee related, it should be seen as positive for our economy. If you add all these things out and out, in the coming times, our stock market will add value to us, which is somewhat better than ours. So if you know all this, you will have an advantage.
Gensol Engineering Ltd. :-
The promoters came out and said, "We did nothing wrong. We will repay whatever we borrowed. We did not borrow by submitting such false documents. In fact, there are statements from Gensol Engineering and Anmol Singh Jaggi, the promoter, that the company has an idea to raise its share. We have always been a profitable company, with one mistake, zero wrongdoing." We have not made any mistakes and will repay the debts properly. We hope that the rating will be upgraded in the next three months. Gensol Engineering has clarified that the market believes this. If we believe this, then there is no reason for the stock to fall by 10% today. So even today, the market does not believe the stories they are telling because the statements made by not one but two rating agencies are so harsh. But some investors are looking to give more importance to words related to promoters. From their perspective, the promoters are clear that we will protect the company, the customers, and all of them with immediate priority. We have not made any mistakes. Only time will tell. But it has not been reflected in the stock price yet.
Coforge Ltd. :-
Next Coforge has announced a stock split. 1:5 means each stock splits into five stocks. The stock price is divided by five. The number of stocks is multiplied by five. The stock price is divided by five. It should be remembered that the record date has not been mentioned yet.
GOLD Jewellery Update :-
We should talk about RBZ Jewelers. If you are investing in this stock, they are reporting a fraud. In their jewelry shop, which is related to Gujarat, a person named Om Kumar Manoj has scammed the jewelry by putting false records for about 1.98 lakhs. It is said that their employee has done such a big scam with false records. They have already reported it to the Gujarat police station. But they are also updating this to the investors. It is said that a company with a market capital of almost 600 crores has been scammed to the tune of about two crores, which means that in their profits last year There is a profit of around 22 crores, but if there is fraud of around 10%.
Railtel Corporation of India Ltd. :-
Here you should note that they are updating three orders related to this, one of which is an order worth 19 crores from Border Security Force BSF for private cloud infrastructure related, another order worth 30 crores 26 lakhs from State Transport Authority Odisha for IMS work related and finally an order worth 262 crores 34 lakhs from State Transport Authority Odisha for upgrading their Command Control Center and IEMS (Intelligent Enforcement Management System). Rail Tel has updated about three orders.
Inox India Ltd. :-
Next Inox India has given them a value of 190 crores. The orders received from multiple players, from across Europe to the US to India, are orders from clients residing in various segments, such as LNG and industrial gas storage tanks, vaporizers, cryogenic equipment related orders. Inox India has updated that their total order book has gone up to 1359 crores with the order coming in at 190 crores.
Bluestar Ltd. :-
Blue Star is also updating that they are entering commercial refrigeration related. Like deep freezers, you see them in big restaurants, or in other segments, there are big deep freezers, storage water coolers, bottled water dispensers, and some other freezers or cold rooms. Blue Star has updated that they are entering all these spaces.
Elon Musk Fail?
Friends are saying that Elon Musk will fail in India, no matter how great he is, he can send his rockets into the sky like SpaceX, Tesla may have brought a revolution in the EV market, but doing business in India is not that easy. These statements are coming from Sajjan Jindal, Chairman and Managing Director of JS Group. Listen to those statements once. We can't be successful in this country. Why not? Why can't Elon be successful because because we Indians are here. We are here. He cannot produce what Mahindra can do what Tata can do. Not possible. He can. He can do under Trump's shadow. He can do in the US. He can. He is super smart. There is no question about it. He is maverick. He is super smart. He is doing this spacecraft and stuff like that. He's done amazing. So I have nothing. I don't want to take anything from him in the sense that you know he is. He is too smart. But to be successful in India. Not an easy job, so whatever statements come from Jindal, all financial platforms are highlighting this. Why can't they succeed? Elon Musk said in India that Tatas do what Mahindra does, M&M does what they do. Whatever work there is in terms of vehicles, Tesla can't do it on Indian roads, so Indian companies and Indian companies' models are exclusive to India, while Tesla, a foreign company, has not succeeded in India. And in recent times, Trump has also repeatedly focused on India-related issues. It is not known whether he wants to help Elon Musk, but he has highlighted the auto tariff many times. In fact, cars should be imported into India with zero tariff. There is pressure on our companies to tax even the rupee. If it is related to India, it will be clear but let's assume that this happened. Leave aside Tesla's cars. Cars related to many companies will come to India because now many cars are related to depending on CC and country of origin and different parameters. Our India is paying a high percentage of tax, 100% to 125%. If all that tax is removed, then if the cars from various global companies come to India, then there is definitely a possibility that some variant will be a threat to our Indian companies as well. Not just Tesla, they will not give this Tesla only, any tax advantage will be given to all companies. Let's see what kind of cars are going to come to India from global companies in the coming times. But what is your opinion on what kind of cars are going to come to India from global companies and at what rate? Also tell us what you think about what Sajjan Jindal is doing, how Musk may have been successful in other countries but not in India.
Zydus Life Sciences Ltd. :-
Zydus Life Sciences has received US FDA approval for drugs used in leukemia-related blood cancer-related diseases, including chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphoblastic leukemia. They have received approval for a drug called dasanib, which is available in multiple dosage forms, and this drug has a market of close to 18 billion dollars. They have received approval for a drug with a large market. They are telling exchanges that Tech Mahindra is using.
Zaggle Ltd. :-
Zaggle’s services for their corporate needs and for their cards spending related to SBI cards, the spend management dashboard will also deal with the amount related to them. Zaggle and Tech Mahindra will provide all this to them for the next one year. Zaggle is updating that Tech Mahindra is going to be a client.
Income Tax Update :-
Friends, Income Tax of India has started a campaign in November 2024. Using the information they have, they have sent messages and mails to many taxpayers. Your foreign assets or income is this much. So review this and if this is yours, revise your ITRs and declare that this is your foreign income. Income Tax is sending messages and mails without taking any action against them. Approximately 30,161 taxpayers have updated their income taxes and declared that they have foreign assets of Rs 29,000 crore. Out of these, approximately 24,678 taxpayers have revised their ITRs and another 5483 people did not actually file ITR but messages like this are coming in. They are filing ITRs and declaring that they have so many assets as if they are in foreign countries and 6734 people have shifted from resident status to non-resident status and declared their income. Income tax is updating them. So, the arguments coming from the side of income tax are that they are going in the trust first approach. That is, if you feel that something has gone wrong, let's inform them first, let's send them an email, let's send a message. Answer this. Or you made a mistake. Or if you think that you did not say it by mistake, leave it and revise your income taxes and think that they are doing it voluntarily. Here, 62% of the tax payers responded positively and changed their ITRs. If they are doing it themselves, they are doing it themselves. There will be no further action against them, if they do not do so, they will be sent notices, asked for explanations, and all the details related to their income tax will be investigated by the income tax officers. But before that, if they voluntarily rectify anything, if there is a mistake, they are also given an opportunity to rectify it, the income tax people say.
Angel One Update :-
Angel One is updating their business. The client base has increased by 15% month-on-month and has increased by close to 43% year-on-year. Whereas, the average daily turnover has fallen by 34.5% year-on-year and has also fallen by 4% month-on-month. Orders are also falling by 21% month-on-month and 42.5% year-on-year. And sip registrations are It should be underlined that in the month-on-month comparison, it is down by 24.6%, whereas in the year-on-year it is up by 20%. Keep aside the fact that SIPs are decreasing by 24.6% in the month-on-month. It is interesting to see this. If we compare this with the month-on-month, February, and January, we can see that the data we are looking at is logical. There are 23 trading days in the month of January and only 20 trading days in the month of February. Even if we look at the data year-on-year, last year, the same February had 21 trading days, now there are 20 trading days. So, we should do more comparisons in the year-on-year than in the month-on-month, particularly for the month of February, because there are close to 20 trading days. So why am I saying that? How can we compare the average daily turnover with January, which has 23 trading days? We cannot compare how orders are there and how SIP registrations are there. We cannot compare a month with more trading days with a month with fewer trading days in terms of business prospect, so we should take the year-on- year into consideration here.
CreditAccess Grameen Update :-
Credit Axis Grameen Bank is updating their business data for the month of February. They say that their loan portfolio is 25395 crores. In month-on-month comparison, it has increased by 2.4%. They say that they have added 15 new borrowers and 150000 new borrowers. They say that the collection efficiency is more than 99.5%. If we exclude this one Karnataka, Karnataka has also improved to almost 98%, says Asset Quality per zero plus has increased to 7.5 from 6.8 in the past and with strong collections, they are sharing good business data, today the stock has increased by close to 6%.
Moschip Technologies Ltd. :-
Moschip is releasing a new AI powered IoT suite related to next generation smart products. This AI powered IoT suite will be used in smart homes, healthcare, manufacturing and automotive industries. They are calling it Gen AI OT. Next Jefferies is saying that Reliance Industries will grow by 43% from here.
Reliance Industries Ltd. :-
Let's talk about the logic. But the target they are giving is going to ₹1660 and if we look at the valuations from a virus point of view, Reliance is currently trading at cheap valuations. Whatever negatives the market thinks, they have already factored in, so the stock is positive in the coming times. Jefferies strong comments that there is scope to grow have increased the stock by close to 3% today and made Nifty one of the strongest indexes today. But if you look at the screen, how many analysts have been giving a buy rating in any year? If there is a positive buy rating like never before in the last 10 years, we will see in 2025 what the reasons will be. See below. If we compare it with the recent peaks compared to last year, the stock has corrected more than 20% above and the market is also expecting an announcement related to Jio IPO from Reliance. Even as a retail related, the market is expecting an IPO from Reliance. Due to this, value unlocking will happen. Telecom segment related consolidation related tariff hike in the coming times. All these are also related to Jio. There are updates that show that there will be benefits in terms of consumption-related as well as Reliance Retail-related when things get better, and Reliance will grow in the coming times, but not everything is positive, right? If we look at the negative side, there are sub-dued earnings in recent times in terms of O2C business-related, there are weekly earnings, and consumption is very important here in terms of Reliance Retail-related but in terms of Demart, but if you observe, this quick commerce will easily take away their related businesses and how much this quick commerce will grow, like this Blinky It Zep to Swiggy Insta, but in what range will they grow their business in the coming times, at that time, even if it is brick and motor stores, you mean Reliance Retail is maintaining physical stores. What kind of impact will it have on the market or on the DMART? Investors should keep these in mind. I know that the impact will be sure. It is probably already reflected in the stock price. But the market has included it so far. In fact, these reports have been talked about everywhere. How many times have they talked about their clean energy-related investments? Green hydrogen-related, solar business-related, batteries-related, storage projects-related, renewable projects-related. Many investments have gone from Reliance. But there are no updates related to that. Let's see if anything comes in the next AGM. As far as I know, it is a big event related to Reliance. They will make an announcement about when their clean energy- related investments will come to yield. Did you see that it is the next leg of Reliance? Growth-related is a foundation, but all analysts are saying that Reliance will grow from here with a trend that the valuations are attractive.
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